Anti-Iraq sentiment is helping Barack Obama to a 50 percent to 39 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in next Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, even though the war has not made it to the top of the issue list among Democrats in other national or state-by-state polls. Asked to choose among seven issues, 35 percent of Democrats chose the economy and an equal number chose Iraq as the top issue. Obama led by 55 percent to 34 percent among the voters who chose Iraq. Obama leads Clinton among white voters 49 percent to 41 percent and among black voters by 66 percent to 24 percent. Margin of error for Democrats is 3.9 percent in this poll, which was conducted Feb.11.
Dean Debnan of Public Polling said that if there was standard turnout for the primary, Obama would only be leading Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent, but that the bigger lead for Obama in this survey was due to the expectation of a greater turnout for young people and black voters. The Madison Capitol Times reported the other day that officials expect turnout to be the highest in 20 years.
John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 32 percent, with a 3.7 percent margin of error. Ron Paul polls at 7 percent. The top issue for Republicans was the economy at 30 percent, followed by Iraq at 21 percent and family and moral values at 20 percent. McCain trounced Huckabee in every issue category except moral and family values where Huckabee led 58 percent to 24 percent and immigration, where McCain led 41 percent to 33 percent.
For some reading on what’s happening in Wisconsin, the Milwaukee Journal today ran a piece, Campaign Hits Wisconsin In Earnest On Tuesday.
Looking ahead to March 4 and the crucial Ohio primary, SurveyUSA says that a poll conducted Feb.10-11 shows Clinton leading Obama 56 percent to 39 percent, with a margin of error of 3.7 percent. The New York Times had a front page story today saying that “For Clinton, Bid Hinges On Texas and Ohio.”