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By Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari

Tuesday’s headline race – the Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat – is a battle between the party’s establishment and progressive wings that has drawn more than $80 million in spending and sparked several personal attacks.

Rep. Haley Stevens faces former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, with the winner set to take on former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is unopposed in the Republican primary. Recent polls have shown El-Sayed with a decisive lead over the more moderate Stevens. 

While progressives have had big wins this summer in deep-blue areas, a win by El-Sayed on Tuesday would set up a major test for the party’s left flank this fall: Can they win a general election for a swing-state seat the party likely must hold to have a chance of flipping the Senate?

Stevens, who was first elected to the House in the 2018 blue wave, has argued she’s best positioned to win the general election, while accusing El-Sayed of being more focused on building a national profile. She has the backing of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, retiring Sen. Gary Peters and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer. 

Stevens’ position on Israel has become a defining issue in the race, as has the broader intraparty debate over U.S. support for the Jewish state and the political power of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. El-Sayed has criticized Stevens over her votes to continue funding Israel’s military and the tens of millions spent on her behalf by AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project. 

El-Sayed, an unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate in 2018 who later led Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human and Veterans Services, has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. He has also slammed the influence of corporate funding in politics and has campaigned alongside Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the fall Senate race a Toss-up.

Other Michigan races

The Senate race isn’t Michigan’s only competitive Democratic primary Tuesday. In the battleground 7th District, progressive activist William Lawrence faces a pair of more moderate opponents, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The winner will face GOP freshman Tom Barrett in a race Inside Elections rates a Toss-up. 

Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin, a rare Democratic statewide official who hasn’t weighed in on the Senate primary, is backing Maasdam in his quest for the House seat she previously held for three terms. 

In the Detroit-area 13th District, Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar faces a primary challenge from state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who is backed by progressive groups Justice Democrats and the Metro Detroit chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America.

Unlike his previous primaries for the plurality Black seat that featured multiple Black opponents, Thanedar, an Indian American, now finds himself in a one-on-one matchup against McKinney, who is Black and has argued that Detroit needs Black representation in Congress. Both have picked up endorsements from members of the Congressional Black Caucus. 

Democrats also have a three-way primary for the open 10th District between former prosecutor Christina Hines, former Commerce Department attorney Eric Chung and former state House Minority Leader Tim Greimel. Army veteran Mike Bouchard is poised to win the GOP nomination, with support from President Donald Trump and the NRCC. Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Republican. 

The 10th District incumbent, Republican John James, has Trump’s support in his race for governor, with 2024 presidential candidate Perry Johnson his main competitor in Tuesday’s primary. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the favorite in the Democratic primary.

Missouri

The progressive movement faces another big test in Missouri’s deep-blue 1st District, where DSA-endorsed former Rep. Cori Bush is aiming for a comeback two years after losing the primary to local prosecutor Wesley Bell.

Like the 2024 contest, which Bell won by 5 points, the current race for the St. Louis-anchored district has seen an influx of spending by pro-Israel super PACs. The United Democracy Project has spent more than $2.5 million to defeat Bush. Another super PAC, the New Democratic Majority, which backs moderate Democrats, has invested more than $1 million on Bell’s behalf.

Republicans will also pick nominees for a pair of deep-red seats, including the 5th District, which state legislators transformed from safely Democratic to one that Trump would have carried by 18 points. The leading Republicans include state Sen. Rick Brattin, a hard-line conservative known for his anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, and former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, who has loaned his campaign $900,00 and has focused on national security and agriculture. Incumbent Emanuel Cleaver II, a former Kansas City mayor unopposed in the Democratic primary, will be a decided underdog in November in his quest for a 12th term.

In the 6th District, which covers northern Missouri, conservative radio host Chris Stigall and Kansas City Councilmember Nathan Willett are among the Republicans vying to succeed retiring Rep. Sam Graves. Stigall has the support of Graves and Sen. Eric Schmitt. Willett has the backing of the influential Missouri Farm Bureau PAC.

Virginia

Congressional politics in the commonwealth have been relatively quiet since the spring, when the Virginia Supreme Court blocked a new Democratic-drawn congressional map voters had approved in an April special election.

That ruling was a major win for Republicans in the nationwide redistricting wars, as the proposed map would have given Democrats a chance to win as many as 10 seats, up from the six they currently hold. 

Still, Democrats hope a favorable political environment will help them flip at least two seats in November. 

That includes the 1st District, where prosecutor Shannon Taylor has the DCCC endorsement in her bid to take on longtime Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. Inside Elections rates the race Lean Republican. 

In the battleground 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria is favored to win the Democratic nomination and advance to a rematch against GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, who defeated her in  2022. Kiggans and Luria have similar backgrounds, having both served in the Navy. Kiggans also touts her career as a nurse practitioner. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up. 

Meanwhile, former Rep. Tom Perriello is seeking a comeback in the 5th District, currently held by Republican John McGuire. Perriello, who served one term before losing in the 2010 tea party wave, is in a three-way primary, while McGuire faces an intraparty challenge from Marine veteran Melanie Lucero. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican. 

Republicans are targeting the 7th District held by freshman Democrat Eugene Vindman, who enters the fall with a massive $6.6 million war chest. Three Republicans are seeking the party nod: entrepreneur Philip Harding; businessman Douglas Ollivant; and pastor and construction company owner Rick Smithers. Inside Elections rates the race as Likely Democratic.

Washington state

Flipping Washington‘s 3rd District is key to Republican hopes of preserving the party’s House majority. The NRCC is backing state Senate Minority Leader John Braun in his challenge to moderate Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez. The pair  are favored to advance out of Tuesday’s all-party primary. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.

Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse’s decision not to seek a seventh term representing the 4th District, the state’s reddest seat, spurred a crowd of would-be successors. The three leading Republican contenders are Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who has Trump’s endorsement, state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Navy veteran Jerrod Sessler, who lost to Newhouse in 2024. Air Force veteran John Duresky is the lone Democrat competing in the nonpartisan primary.

Kansas

Eleven Democrats are vying to challenge Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, including Adam Hamilton, pastor of the nation’s largest Methodist congregation. Hamilton’s fundraising has far outpaced that of his Democratic opponents, but he faces significant headwinds in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

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