Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. On Election Day, Democrats in key battlegrounds put their faith in familiar faces: candidates who lost two years ago and opted to try again this cycle. In most cases, their quest for a comeback was thwarted. Among the Democratic contenders who made unsuccessful return runs were Kirsten Engel in Arizona, Rudy Salas and Will Rollins in California, Ashley Ehasz in Pennsylvania, Tony Vargas in Nebraska and Michelle Vallejo in Texas. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who lost a primary for another New York district in 2022, fell short in his effort to unseat Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in an area Jones had previously represented. And both Christina Bohannan in Iowa and Adam Gray in California trail their Republican opponents, according to unofficial results, although the Associated Press has yet to call the races. Bohannan’s campaign said Thursday that it’s requesting a recount. The NRCC mocked the Democrats’ strategy last year, comparing the roster of 2022 losers to “week-old crusty lasagna.” But the GOP also failed to find success with most of its repeat candidates: George Logan in Connecticut, Yvette Herrell in New Mexico, Scott Baugh in California, Mayra Flores in Texas and Joe Kent in Washington state all lost. Several 2022 losers managed to cast off the stench of defeat. Two New York Democrats flipped GOP-held districts and moved into the winner’s column this year. On Long Island, Laura Gillen beat Rep. Anthony D’Esposito after losing to him in 2022. In a rematch upstate, Josh Riley unseated Rep. Marc Molinaro. And Republican Nick Begich III in Alaska leads Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, though the race may not be decided until the state’s ranked choice tabulation process is complete. Despite experiencing back-to-back losses, Will Rollins said he has no misgivings. “I’m going to be honest: losing sucks,’’ he said in a statement conceding the race in California’s 41st District to Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. ”Especially after campaigning back-to-back for nearly three years. But I will never regret running.” Starting gate Majority rule: Republicans will maintain control of the House next year, The Associated Press said overnight after House Democratic leaders conceded the chamber on Wednesday night when it was clear Republicans would win 218 seats. There are still several races to call which will determine the size of the GOP majority, but it appears that it will be narrow as Republicans take unified control of Washington come January. Leadership elections: It was a Wednesday election day for Republicans on Capitol Hill. South Dakota Sen. John Thune won the secret-ballot election to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, defeating Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Florida's Rick Scott, who was the pick of Elon Musk and others in the “MAGA” wing of the party. In the House, Republicans will keep much of their leadership the same as the last year, but Rep. Lisa McClain, of Michigan, won the race for Conference chair against Florida Rep. Kat Cammack. Of particular interest for At The Races readers, Sen. Tim Scott will chair the National Republican Senatorial Committee, while Rep. Richard Hudson is returning to the National Republican Congressional Committee for round two. Specials on tap: Trump is looking to Congress as he announces nominees for his Cabinet, which will likely trigger special elections in Florida and New York. The Republican governors of Ohio and Florida are also poised to select replacements for Vice President-elect JD Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio, whom Trump said he’ll nominate to lead the State Department. The former power of one: House Republicans agreed Wednesday to change chamber rules that would make it tougher to oust the speaker in the manner that ex-Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., lost his job last year, and after some threatened the current speaker, Mike Johnson, with the same fate earlier this year. The deal would raise the bar for members to offer a “motion to vacate” the speaker’s chair by requiring additional members to sign on to such a privileged resolution. ICYMI #PASEN: The race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Republican Dave McCormick, who has been attending Senate orientation this week, is heading to a recount. McCormick leads Casey by less than half of 1 percent, triggering a mandatory recount under state law, according to Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt. Results of the recount are set to be published Nov. 27, according to Schmidt’s office. The Associated Press called the race for McCormick on Nov. 7. #WISEN: Eric Hovde, the Republican who challenged Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, acknowledged he lost the Senate race, but has not ruled out a request for a recount, which he could make because he lost by less than a percentage point, or about 29,000 votes, the AP reported. In a video posted to social media, Hovde pointed to irregularities with the vote results, although the New York Times reports that election officials say his allegations “lack any merit.” Durbin’s decision: Illinois Sen. Richard J. Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, is set to decide whether to run for a sixth term, which could set up a competitive primary if he opts against running. Rubio replacement: Trump has selected three administration officials, so far, from Florida, his adopted home state. His choice of Rubio to lead the State Department is set to give Gov. Ron DeSantis a chance to pick a replacement to fill the seat until a 2026 special election. CBS News reports that James Uthmeier, DeSantis’ chief of staff, Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez and state Attorney General Ashley Moody are among the potential people DeSantis could pick. Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump also has the support of at least one GOP senator for the job, according to Axios. And in New York: Spectrum News reports that Assemblymember Chris Tague and Rep. Marc Molinaro, who lost re-election in the 19th District in last week’s election, are among the potential Republicans who could run to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik, Trump’s pick for ambassador to the United Nations. DNC contenders: The Associated Press reports that former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has had discussions with donors and other officials about leading the Democratic National Committee. Other potential contenders for the party’s top spot include Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, former Georgia lawmaker Stacey Abrams, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. (This morning, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy ruled out a run, according to ABC News.) What we’re reading Tanden trouble: Sean Michael Newhouse at Government Executive reports on ethics issues regarding White House Domestic Policy Adviser Neera Tanden. Newhouse reports that Special Counsel Hampton Dellinger has referred Tanden to the Merit Systems Protection Board after finding alleged violations of the Hatch Act — in this case, promoting fundraising for political candidates. Defying gravity in the Central Valley: Politico spotlights Republican Rep. David Valadao, who once again won in a California district where Democrats hold a double-digit voter registration edge. Valadao is a workhorse who is “not there to build a profile, to get clicks, to become Fox News famous,’’ one GOP strategist told the outlet. Battle for New York: Democrats flipped three House seats in New York, even as Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have trailed Biden’s 2020 margins there, a bright spot for the party after this month’s elections. NBC News looks at the state’s “unlikely battleground status” and a coordinated committee three top Democrats put together to help the party. Last hurrah in Big Sky Country? Political parties and candidates spent $273 million and counting on Montana’s Senate race. But the contest between Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and GOP challenger Tim Sheehy might be the state’s last big-dollar Senate election for the foreseeable future, according to an analysis done by The Flathead Beacon. Montana’s increasingly red political climate means future Senate races are less likely to be competitive — and outside money that had flowed to the state likely will be spent elsewhere. The Count: 26,467 That’s the vote lead of Republican challenger McCormick over incumbent Democratic Sen. Casey in Pennsylvania (out of nearly 6.9 million votes cast). The 0.4 percent margin is less than the 0.5 percent threshold requiring a statewide recount, Secretary of the Commonwealth Schmidt announced Wednesday evening. Though the difference seems slim, Casey is unlikely to make up that deficit. According to data compiled by FairVote, the largest margin shift of any of the 36 statewide recounts conducted in the last 25 years was only 5,550 votes (0.2 percent). That 2021 recount was also in Pennsylvania, for a seat on the Commonwealth Court. More bad news in that example for Casey: the net shift was in favor of the candidate who entered the recount with the lead, just confirming the initial outcome. Key race: #FL01 redux Florida’s panhandle-based 1st Congressional District was our key race this summer, and it is already back, with Wednesday’s news that Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., was resigning from the House and has been announced by Trump as his nominee to be attorney general. Retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock received 27.4 percent of the vote in August’s Republican primary in the red district, easily losing to Gaetz despite backing from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political operation. Gaetz, of course, led the effort to oust McCarthy. Speaker Mike Johnson said Gaetz had issued his resignation letter, effective immediately, to allow Republicans to more quickly fill his seat in the new year. The narrow 2025 House majority is threatened as Trump has already chosen three members, including Gaetz, to serve in his administration. “That caught us by surprise a little bit, but I asked him what the reasoning was, and he said, 'Well, you can't have too many absences,’” Johnson told reporters of his conversation with Gaetz. Under Florida law, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, can call a special election to fill a vacancy, which Johnson said can be as quick as an eight-week process. “I've already placed a call to Governor DeSantis in Florida and said, 'Let's start the clock,’” Johnson said. Coming up House Democratic leadership elections on Nov. 19. Photo finish Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., second from left, the new incoming Senate majority leader, greets incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., after the Republican leadership election in the Capitol on Wednesday. Also appearing are, from left, incoming Conference Vice Chair James Lankford, R-Okla., Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., Policy Committee Chair Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., and Conference Chair Tom Cotton, R-Ark. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
