By Evyn Ableson, Lindsay Augustine, Sean Campbell, Benjamin Gamson, Leo Li, Lizzy Liautaud, Maybeline Tucker DAVENPORT, Iowa — In a critical visit to the heartland, Speaker Mike Johnson laid out the stakes clearly as he stood alongside Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, imploring Iowans to “defy history” and help him preserve the GOP majority. Turnout is lower in midterm elections, and the president’s party tends to lose seats, Johnson said at the Friday rally, but “we cannot risk that.” Rattling off details about his party’s slim margins and historical statistics, Johnson urged the Republican faithful gathered at the GOP “battlestation” in the eastern part of the state to do everything they could. “Let’s win this race by more than six votes this time,” Johnson said, a reference to Miller-Meeks’ 2020 victory. Inside Elections rates the 1st District and Republican Rep. Zach Nunn’s 3rd District as “tilt Democratic.” The race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is rated “tilt Republican.” The open seat gubernatorial race is rated “tilt Democratic,” which would be a flip of a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 percent in 2024 and also won handily in 2020 and 2016. That’s why Iowa is ground zero for control of Congress. Interviews with Iowans in small cities, college towns and rural areas last week revealed an engaged electorate frustrated with partisan politics and hoping for candidates who will work on local issues like water quality, education and gas prices, which were $4.29 a gallon for regular at most pumps last week. Diesel was more than $6 at many stations. The conversations with more than 75 voters across more than 1,000 miles also suggested Iowans relish the color purple and bipartisanship. It’s a place feeling the pain of the war in Iran and tariffs, and where Trump’s name draws mixed reactions. On a sunny Wednesday in downtown Marshalltown, retired 72-year-old Marcia Pasilas said anyone who supports Trump is “crazy.” Down the street, Denny Shannahan, 77, sat inside the Salvation Army waiting to put in a job application for bell ringing during the holidays. He said he has struggled to find other work. His support for Trump, though, has never wavered. “Promises made. Promises kept,” Shannahan said. “I don’t think the other team can say that.” Michelle Wilkinson, 59, is secretary of the First Presbyterian Church. She said churchgoers rarely talk about politics besides expressing frustrations about attack ads on both sides, though she said she has seen public support for Trump decline since 2024. “I have noticed a lot of signs have come down, and I don't see people wearing the red hats, and I don't see people driving around with all the stuff on their trucks,” said Wilkinson, who said she leans Democrat and will vote for Democratic candidates to try to even out power in Congress. She’s in Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra’s district, which is an open seat but not considered competitive. She said she wishes there was “more of a middle” in politics. “I think most people actually are in the middle,” Wilkinson said. “We have a lot more in common than people are trying to divide us.” At the Miller-Meeks rally, Jim Beran, the Republican Central Committee treasurer in Scott County, also said he didn’t like the Republican control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress, saying compromise is important to the American governmental system. “You need those other voices,” Beran said. “If you're smart, even if you're in the majority, you listen to the minority.” Republicans hold the state legislature and all four Iowa House seats. The Hawkeye State hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008. Third-term representative Miller-Meeks called the polling and race ratings misleading and said Friday she is confident she will prevail. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that the super PAC associated with Speaker Johnson, Congressional Leadership Fund, was “cutting off financial support” for several GOP candidates, including Miller-Meeks, and redirecting funds elsewhere. “I don’t care what the experts say,” Miller-Meeks told reporters. “They don’t know Iowa, and they don’t know us.” The roughly 50 attendees said they would be getting to work after hearing from the speaker. Friends Debbie and Penny, who declined to give their last names, said they had been door knocking and making calls, especially to “rev” up independents. “The key is to get the people that tend to stay home,” Penny said. Outside of the Republican rally, protestors held up signs and shouted complaints about Miller-Meeks. “What kind of doctor votes to cut healthcare?” one sign read, pointing to a photo of the congresswoman, who is a physician. Another read, “Honk to impeach,” and drivers sounded agreement. Speaker Mike Johnson speaks during a campaign event for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Davenport, Iowa, on Friday. (USC Annenberg Media) Johnson lambasted Miller-Meeks’ Democratic opponent, Christina Bohannon, calling it a “contrast between common sense and crazy.” He warned that Bohannon, a former state representative running for the seat for a third time, is a “radical leftist.” He warned against socialist and Marxist values coming to Washington, along with a “dark dangerous road,” to communism. It’s a message he’s been taking across the country, with events in 40 districts across 20 states. Bohannon’s campaign called the charge “laughable” and cited her disagreements with former President Joe Biden and work in rural economic development. Johnson cited Miller-Meeks’ background as a doctor and military veteran and said she is the kind of lawmaker who can walk into a room and calm everybody down. “I’ve got to have her,” Johnson said. Democrats will need to pick up independents given Republicans have the voter registration advantage in Iowa. Many of the candidates are stressing working across the aisle, and voters over the last week said that’s what they want to see more of. At a Turning Point USA rally at the University of Iowa Thursday, Lanny Pugh, 68, said he wished candidates would run more on their governing ideas than the attacks that are inundating the airwaves. They should “talk about what you want to do. Talk about the issues that are important. Stop putting the other guy down,” Pugh said. “Let us make that decision.” Back-to-back ads from candidates, super PACs and the House and Senate campaigns seemed particularly offensive to voters. “Socialism is on the rise. Do you trust Josh Turek to say no,” blares one mailer sent to an Ames household by Americans for Prosperity’s PAC. Ads call Democrat Turek a “radical liberal” who has been absent from his legislative duties as a state representative. Pro-Turek ads suggest Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is a close friend of Trump, and is protecting her donors by voting against releasing the Epstein files. For Scott Aipperle, 66, of Marshalltown, some of the ads are “scary.” “In this election, there’s just been a lot of lies and half truths,” he said. For all the warnings, Turek has been making headlines for saying he would work with Trump and pointedly saying during his debate against Hinson Wednesday he had “no interest” in impeaching the president. Other than the debate, Hinson and Turek were both largely absent from the public eye last week. They held dueling roundtables Friday, captured by cameras but without voters or questions from reporters. Hinson held a conversation on water quality at the West Des Moines City Hall listening to community stakeholders, while Turek hosted a roundtable on disabilities and talked with small business owners in Waterloo, according to videos posted on his campaign’s Facebook account. Over the weekend he attended a University of Northern Iowa homecoming parade. At her event, Hinson told local leaders she was working to get federal dollars to boost water quality infrastructure and she stressed the issue’s importance at the debate. Still, protestors outside told reporters she wasn’t doing enough. Before the candidates traded one-liners at the debate at the Iowa PBS station in Johnston, local party faithful rallied support for Hinson. They chanted and cheered, standing next to a 13-foot elephant draped in a banner reading “vote Republican.” Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, called Hinson “a proven commodity” because of her track record in Congress, but said he worries every day because of historical trends on midterm elections. “Midterms when you have the president’s party in play, we’re swimming upstream,” Kaufmann said. “We always have been, we knew this was going to be a dogfight.” He took note there were zero Turek supporters present ahead of the debate. While there was a lot of activity from volunteers on the ground, the Democratic campaigns for House and Senate advertised few public events and did not make candidates available for interviews. Only Democratic state auditor Rob Sand, currently favored to win the open seat for governor, and his GOP rival, entrepreneur Zach Lahn, held events at a steady clip. At Central Standard Craft Beer and Burgers Friday in Waukee, Sand noted the challenge of a Democrat winning in a Republican state. “We can have balance in the state of Iowa again,” he said, adding that the state’s history has not been focused on being Democrats or Republicans, but about being Iowans. “Not redder or bluer, but better and truer,” he said. “I need your help doing that.” Megan Lane, working at Dog-Eared Books in Ames, said she felt seen by Sand’s description of his political affiliations. “One of the things that I really enjoy about his stance is not focusing on [the political party] but focusing on the issues themselves and how we can work together to make a better state,” said Lane, an independent. At Pridefest Saturday wearing a shirt declaring himself “very supportive” of gay rights, Jay Biersted, 45, said he will mostly vote Democratic. The relentless focus on social issues has helped Republicans while clouding debates such as affordability that are most important for Iowans, he said. Asked about his plans for Election Day, Biersted’s answer was simple: “Get my butt to the polls.” This story was reported from Iowa by students from the University of Southern California Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism. Direct questions to christina.bellantoni@usc.edu
