ANALYSIS — Twenty months down and less than four months to go, you’d think there would be more clarity in the fight for the Senate. But Republicans only have a narrow advantage and, if history is a guide, control of the chamber will likely remain up for grabs all the way to November. President Donald Trump’s underwhelming job approval rating (40 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove in Nate Silver’s latest national average) has expanded the Senate battleground to include GOP-leaning states such as Alaska, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina, which wouldn’t be competitive under normal political conditions. And yet a Democratic takeover of the Senate is far from guaranteed. There are no easy pickups for either party, unlike previous cycles such as 2010, when GOP Gov. John Hoeven of North Dakota was well positioned to win retiring Democratic Sen. Byron L. Dorgan’s seat. This cycle, every battleground race looks like a slog. Democrats’ best pickup opportunities are in a swing state where they’ve won just one Senate race this century (North Carolina) and in a Democratic-leaning state against one of the GOP’s most battle-tested incumbents (Susan Collins in Maine). Democrats also have to worry about holding a trio of their own vulnerable seats — in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. In the end, even if control of the Senate doesn’t hinge on a single seat, there will likely be enough close races right up to the end that it would be difficult to predict who wins the majority before votes are cast and counted. Here’s a look at three recent elections that saw big Senate changes: 2006 Senate Republicans went into the 2006 midterms with a 55-45 majority and President George W. Bush sporting a 37 percent job approval rating (according to Gallup), giving Democrats an opportunity to flip the chamber. But even though it’s easy to remember that Democrats succeeded in taking the majority that cycle, it’s just as easy to forget how many close races there were. While some Democrats posted big wins — Ohio’s Sherrod Brown with 56 percent and Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey Jr. with 59 percent — and Sheldon Whitehouse received 54 percent in Rhode Island, others won with less than a majority of the vote — Missouri’s Claire McCaskill (49.6 percent), Montana’s Jon Tester (49.2 percent) and Virginia’s Jim Webb (49.6 percent). In the end, Senate Democrats prevailed with a 51-49 advantage (including two independents who caucused with them), and came close to adding Tennessee, where Democrat Harold Ford Jr. received 48 percent and lost by a couple of points to Republican Bob Corker. 2010 Republicans had a steep hill to climb after Barack Obama’s historic win in 2008. Democrats had a 60-40 advantage in the Senate (with help from the two independents). But that power didn’t last long. Republican Scott P. Brown won a January 2010 special election in Massachusetts in one of the biggest upsets in political history, and Republicans never looked back. They went on to net six more Senate seats that November. Two of those victories weren’t particularly close: Hoeven’s win in North Dakota and John Boozman taking 58 percent over Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. But the other four races were much closer. Republican Mark S. Kirk won Obama’s old seat in Illinois with 48 percent, Republican Patrick J. Toomey received 51 percent in what ended up being an open seat in Pennsylvania, Republican Ron Johnson unseated Democrat Russ Feingold with 51.9 percent in Wisconsin and Republican Dan Coats won with 55 percent in Indiana. While Senate Republicans started the cycle buried in the minority, they nearly flipped control of the chamber. Flawed GOP nominees allowed Democrat Michael Bennet to win in Colorado with 48 percent, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid to secure reelection in Nevada with about 50 percent and Democrat Chris Coons to comfortably win Joe Biden’s old seat in Delaware. Though even with wins in those states, Republicans would have been just short of the majority. This cycle, Republicans are hoping Democrats leave some gains on the table by nominating flawed candidates. 2020 The fight for control of the Senate was so close in 2020 that it wasn’t even decided until after the new year. Trump’s unpopularity laid the foundation for big Democratic gains. And yet, even with the wind at their backs, Democrats barely got across the line by winning a handful of close races. They needed to flip a net of four GOP seats (and win the White House) for Senate control in order to balance out Democratic Sen. Doug Jones’ loss to former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville in Alabama. Democrats ended up doing just that, but none of their four winners received more than 54 percent of the vote. Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally in Arizona (with 51 percent), John Hickenlooper knocked off GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado (53.5 percent), and then Democrats Jon Ossoff (50.6 percent) and Raphael Warnock (51 percent) prevailed in runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5, 2021. There were a handful of other close races for seats that didn’t change hands. Democratic holds included Sen. Gary Peters prevailing over Republican John James in Michigan, 49.9 percent to 48.2 percent, Tina Smith winning with 48.8 percent in Minnesota and Ben Ray Luján receiving 51.7 percent in New Mexico. Meanwhile, Republicans came close to losing more seats, considering Joni Ernst won reelection with 51.8 percent in Iowa and Thom Tillis scraped by with 48.7 percent in North Carolina. So, back to this year, even though Democrats aren’t running away with enough races to be the clear favorites to win the Senate majority, it doesn't mean they can’t get the four they need to flip the chamber this fall. According to Inside Elections’ latest projection, Senate Democrats are likely to gain between two and four seats, which means control is firmly up for grabs.
