Opinion · 115th Congress
The Political Class Got 2016 Wrong. Could We See a Repeat?
By the Friday before the election, Nov. 4, that advantage had slipped to 2 points.
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By the Friday before the election, Nov. 4, that advantage had slipped to 2 points.
In exit polls from the 2008 presidential election, 85 percent of voters said they were worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, with 50 percent “very worried.”
We also know that in the remaining five counties, turnout was roughly 21 percent lower than 2014, which for a special election would normally still be considered a good turnout.
And the trend in this year’s congressional election — a race once thought to be a shoo-in for Democrats — has been moving toward the GOP.
Now, fast-forward to these same four polls, taken March 16-21. Three-and-a-half months later, the Democrats’ generic ballot lead has been cut almost in half, coming in at around 5 points.
Context and perspective are crucial in analyzing election data.