Texas Republicans embarked on a mid-decade redraw of the state’s congressional map last year in a quest to win five additional seats and build on the GOP’s recent gains with Latino voters. Now that strategy is running headlong into rising disenchantment with President Donald Trump and a Latino electorate disgruntled with the state of the economy and increasingly distressed by the harshness of Trump’s immigration crackdown. “Economic anxiety is still the dominant political mood, but the politics have shifted,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “The Latino vote is the biggest swing vote in Texas, and it is trending towards the Democrats, because there's a perception that the Republicans didn't take those concerns seriously enough.” That shift was reflected in the results of the March 3 Texas primaries, which saw a spike in Democratic turnout in counties with large Latino populations, including several battleground districts. According to analysis of Texas voting data prepared by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and shared with CQ Roll Call, turnout in 46 majority-Hispanic counties was 33 percent higher than it was in the 2024 primaries. In those counties, Democratic ballots collectively made up 66 percent of votes cast, according to the DCCC. A DCCC memo said the primary results suggest that the Republican redistricting drive, done at Trump’s urging, was “a misguided and failed effort” that will not yield the five additional seats the GOP hoped for. Increased primary turnout doesn’t guarantee a blue wave in November, but Democrats view it as a sign of heightened enthusiasm for their candidates. “It’s no surprise that the Texas primary showed a clear rebuke of House Republicans and their high costs, reckless tariffs, and immigration overreach. Voters showed up for Democrats in strong numbers, and they will show up again in November to deliver the House for Democrats,” DCCC spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez said in a statement. In the primaries for the redrawn 35th Congressional District, the DCCC says Democrats netted 7,500 more votes than Republicans. Under Texas’ new map, the district shifted from one Kamala Harris won by 34 points to one Trump would have carried the district by 10 points, according to calculations by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. The Democratic incumbent, Greg Casar, responded to the move by opting to seek reelection from a neighboring deep-blue seat. Both parties will hold May 26 runoffs to pick their nominees for the 35th District. The Republican matchup pits state Rep. John Lujan against Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, while housing advocate Maureen Galindo and Bexar County sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia are vying for the Democratic nod. Democrats are also projecting increasing confidence that two of their vulnerable South Texas incumbents — Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District and Henry Cuellar in the 28th — will prevail. Gonzalez faces Army veteran Eric Flores in a race rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections. And Cuellar is looking to beat back a challenge from Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat. “There's a very real possibility that the Republicans won't pick up anywhere close to five seats this cycle,” Rottinghaus said. “There's a good chance they could pick up one, maybe two. If they picked up more than that, it would be very surprising.” Democrats are also seeking to turn the 15th District into a battleground race. Trump carried the district by 18 points in 2024, and it was largely unchanged under the recent map redraw. The party’s goal of defeating Monica De La Cruz rests with Tejano singer Bobby Pulido. Republicans say the gains the party made with Latinos are durable and believe these voters will continue trending right. They point out that Republican candidates have outraised their Democratic competitors in several key races. “Democrats can try to bluff their way through the headlines, but they don’t have credible recruits, they’re burning through cash, and they’re scrambling just to protect their own vulnerable incumbents,” Christian Martinez, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement last week. “This isn’t a Texas surge. It’s a Texas meltdown.” Monica De La Cruz's name and John Lujan's position were corrected in this report.
