All the attention lately has been on early state polls, and national match-ups, where Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani have been slipping. But the story is different in some of the polls of the states that vote on the Feb.5 mega-primary day as well as some other big states that are pivotal in the general election.. Quinnipiac reported earlier this month that Clinton had commanding leads in Florida (votes Jan. 29), Ohio (votes Mar. 4)and Pennsylvania (votes Apr. 22) and that Giuliani remained ahead of the pack on the GOP side but was less dominant.
The same state of play appears to be true in New Jersey which was one of the states in the Feb. 5 mega-primary line-up. In a new Qunnipiac survey, Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 51 – 17 percent, with 7 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. This compares to a 46 – 20 percent Clinton lead over Obama in an October 17 poll. Giuliani leads Arizona Sen. John McCain 38 – 12 percent, with 8 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 7 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and 4 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. This compares to a 48 – 12 percent Giuliani lead over McCain October 17.
There is a geographical explanation that plays into this result. “New Jersey voters know the girl and boy next door, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and apparently are sticking with them. There’s no Oprah bump in Sen. Barack Obama’s numbers and the Huckabee factor is minor in the Republican race, where Sen. John McCain is the second place contender,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.