South Carolina Poll Update, And A New National Poll

Posted January 17, 2008 at 9:17pm

We reported earlier on several polls taking the temperature of voters in South Carolina and here is another one to throw into the mix from McClatchy-MSNBC. The survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling, says John McCain and Mike Huckabee are running neck-and-neck, a different result from the other polls. McCain has a statistically insignificant lead with 27 percent, to 25 percent for Huckabee, 15 percent for Mitt Romney and 13 percent for Fred Thompson, who has heaped much importance on this primary. Ron Paul has 6 percent and it’s good-bye Rudy Giuliani in this state, having sunk to 5 percent. The margin of error is 5 percent. The poll did find some volatility and possibility of change in voter choices. 8 percent are undecided among Republicans.

Among Democrats, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton as he did in an American Research Group Survey. Obama’s support is at 40 percent to Clinton’s 31 percent, with John Edwards at 13 percent. The undecided among Democrats, at 13 percent, is larger than on the GOP side.

In a Reuters/Zogby national preference poll released today, Obama has caught up to Clinton. She now leads Obama by only 39 percent to 38 percent after holding leads of eight points or larger in each month of this poll dating back to May. Edwards is at only 9 percent. The margin of error is 4.7 percent.

On the Republican side, some caution should be exercised in digesting the numbers since the poll was conducted Jan. 10-11, before Romney’s Michigan victory. McCain leads Huckabee 28 percent to 23 percent with Thompson at 14 percent, Romney at 13 percent, Giuliani at 9 percent and Paul at 4 percent.