Polls today offer a split decision for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the big primaries on Tuesday, giving him the lead in Texas and Clinton a small edge in Ohio. That being said, while both races are competitive, the big question that will loom next week if Clinton scores modest popular vote victories is whether they will be enough to stop Obama’s momentum, particularly since he would still likely pick up a good share of delegates.
American Research Group and Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle (a Zogby poll) have Obama leading in Texas by roughly similar margins. ARG puts the numbers at 51 percent to 44 percent in Obama’s favor, with a 4 point margin of error, while Zogby has it 48 percent to 42 percent for Obama with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The ARG poll was conducted Feb. 27-28 and the Zogby survey covered Feb. 26-28. Both polls say one key element of Obama’s strength is among younger voters. Voters under 50 made up 60 percent of ARG’s sample and Obama’s lead among them is 60 percent to 35 percent. Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 55 percent to 41 percent (26 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among black voters 86 percent to 8 percent (22 percent of the sample).
In Ohio, both polls show Clinton clinging to a narrow lead. ARG has her ahead in its Feb. 27-28 survey by 50 percent to 45 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. Zogby’s Feb. 26-28 survey makes it closer: Clinton ahead by 44 percent to 42 percent with a 4.1 percent margin of error and 9 percent “not sure.” ARG has Clinton ahead among white voters 56 percent to 37 percent (82 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters 80 percent to 17 percent (16 percent of the sample). Unlike Texas, Obama’s lead over Clinton among younger voters is only 5 points.
Zogby also had Republican poll results showing John McCain ahead of Mike Huckabee 53 percent to 27 percent in Texas, with home state Rep. Ron Paul at 11 percent. In Ohio, McCain eclipses Huckabee 62 percent to 19 percent.