California: Candidates’ Polls Differ in Open-Seat Contest

Posted October 1, 2008 at 6:34pm

A pair of competing polls with differing results have been released this week in the race for the Golden State’s open 4th district seat.

In a poll conducted for state Sen. Tom McClintock’s campaign, the Republican led retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown (D) by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent.

In a poll conducted for the liberal Web site Daily Kos, Brown led McClintock by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent.

McClintock’s poll surveyed 400 “high-propensity registered voters” Sept. 22-24 via person-to-person interviews, and had an error margin of 5 points. The Daily Kos poll, conducted by Research 2000 Sept. 23-25, surveyed 400 “likely voters” via automated interviews and also had a 5-point error margin.

The McClintock campaign took issue with the methodology of the Daily Kos poll, saying that it undersampled both Republicans and senior citizens.

Although Daily Kos is almost always sympathetic to Democratic Congressional candidates, Research 2000 is an independent polling firm, and Kos has posted all of its polls, including those that showed the Democratic candidate losing.