Poll Shows Murkowski With a Fighting Chance

Posted September 30, 2010 at 1:44pm

A new poll from Alaska-based polling firm Ivan Moore Research shows Sen. Lisa Murkowski not only has a chance to win as a write-in candidate, but at this point, the Alaska Republican is the favorite among voters aware that she is running.

Informing voters that she is still running even though she’s not on the ballot is the challenge. And the poll showed she has some work to do.

On the poll’s first question, without mentioning Murkowski’s name, Republican nominee Joe Miller took 43 percent of the vote, followed by Democrat Scott McAdams with 28 percent and 9 percent undecided. As for Murkowski, 18 percent volunteered her name.

Moore then asked the 82 percent who did not name Murkowski whether they would change their vote with the knowledge that she is running. Of those voters, 31 percent said they would write in “Lisa Murkowski” rather than stick with their previous vote.

After a recalculation, Murkowski led with 44 percent, followed by Miller with 36 percent and McAdams with 14 percent. Just 6 percent were undecided.

“Now, the reality of the situation is that neither of these results is going to be correct,” Moore said in the polling memo. “The first should be perceived as a minimum for Lisa, the latter a maximum. The reality lies somewhere in between. … The question is where?”

The poll was conducted Sept. 23-27 and taken of 573 likely voters with a 4.1-point margin of error.