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EMILY’s List Targets 15 Republicans for 2016

Schriock is the president of EMILY's List. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
Schriock is the president of EMILY’s List. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

EMILY’s List put 15 GOP incumbents “On Notice” for their re-election bids Monday, naming its top GOP targets for 2016, according to a release provided first to CQ Roll Call.

The group, which backs women who support abortion rights, says each incumbent has a bad record on women’s health issues, and will make it a priority to find female recruits to challenge them next fall. The list is almost identical to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s top targets in 2016, when the party will seek to put a dent in Republicans’ historic House majority.

“Less than five months into the 114th Congress, we have seen House Republicans more extreme than ever before, repeatedly prioritizing national abortion bans and restricting women’s access to health care over enacting policies that benefit more women and families across the country,” Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY’s List, said in a news release. “That’s why for the first round of ‘On Notice’ incumbents, we’ve zeroed in on House Republicans whose refusal to stand up for women and families in their districts will get them sent packing in 2016.”

EMILY’s List will attempt to recruit strong women challengers to the GOP incumbents they’ve put “On Notice.” Those on the list are, in alphabetical order:

  • Rep. Rod Blum, a freshman from Iowa’s 1st District. Blum represents a district President Barack Obama carried by a 14-point margin in 2012, which makes Blum one of the most vulnerable incumbents on the map. Three Democrats are already running here, including Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon, the first House candidate EMILY’s List endorsed this cycle. Rothenberg & Gonzales Race Rating: Tossup.
  • Rep. Mike Coffman, who has held Colorado’s competitive 6th District since 2008, even though Obama carried the district twice. Democrats are looking to recruit a female candidate here. State Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll has met with House leadership about a bid, and Centennial City Councilwoman Rebecca McClellan is also mulling a run. Rating: Republican Favored.
  • Rep. Barbara Comstock, a freshman from the Northern Virginia-based 10th District. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried the district by a slim margin in 2012, while Obama won it four years earlier. Democrats are also looking to recruit a female candidate here. Rating: Leans Republican.
  • Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a freshman from Florida’s Miami-based 26th District. Curbelo already has a challenge from former Miami-Dade County Democratic Chair Annette Taddeo, but others could also look to run in this district, which Obama carried by a 7-point margin in 2012. Rating: Tilts Republican.
  • Rep. Rodney Davis, who won re-election by a large margin in 2014 in Illinois’ competitively drawn 13th District. Romney barely carried the seat in 2012, while Obama won it by an 11-point margin four years earlier. Democrats have yet to find a candidate to face Davis next fall. Rating: Safe Republican.
  • Rep. Dan Donovan, who won New York’s Staten Island-based 11th District earlier this month in a special election to succeed disgraced ex-Rep. Michael G. Grimm. Democrats are looking at state Sen. Diane J. Savino as a possible recruit. Rating: Safe Republican.
  • Rep. Cresent Hardy, a freshman from Nevada’s 4th District. At least three Democrats are looking to challenge Hardy in this seat, which Obama won by an 11-point margin in 2012. Two of those candidates are women. Rating: Tilts Democratic.
  • Rep. John Katko, a freshman from New York’s Syracuse-based 24th District. Obama carried the seat by a 16-point margin in 2012, making it one of the most Democratic districts held by a Republican in the country. Rating: Tossup.
  • Rep. John Kline, a perennial Democratic target in Minnesota’s 2nd District, which Obama carried twice. Two women, health care executive Angie Craig and physician Mary Lawrence, have announced bids to challenge Kline next fall. Rating: Safe Republican.
  • Rep. Steve Knight, a freshman from California’s 25th District. Knight, who had fundraising troubles since arriving in Congress, has two Democratic opponents already. They include Maria Gutzeit, a member of the Santa Clarita Water Board. Rating: Leans Republican.
  • Rep. Martha McSally, a freshman Republican who won Arizona’s 2nd District in 2014 by one of the slimmest margins in the country. Rating: Leans Republican.
  • Rep. Bruce Poliquin, the freshman from Maine’s 2nd District, who faces a rematch with former state Sen. Emily Cain. EMILY’s List backed Cain in 2014. Rating: Tossup.
  • Rep. Tim Walberg, the Michigan Republican serving his fourth, non-consecutive term. Romney won Walberg’s 7th District by a 3-point margin in 2012, while Obama carried it by the same margin four years earlier. Democrats tout their recruit, state Rep. Gretchen Driskell, as a top-tier challenger. Rating: Tilts Republican.
  • Rep. David Young, a freshman Republican from Iowa’s 3rd District. Obama carried this Des Moines district twice. Young could face a rematch with the Democrat he defeated in 2014, former state Sen. Staci Appel. Rating: Tossup.
  • Rep. Lee Zeldin, a freshman who represents New York’s 1st District. Obama won the seat by a 1-point margin in 2012. Two Democrats are already seeking to challenge Zeldin, including one woman, Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst. Rating: Leans Republican.

Roll Call Race Ratings Map: Ratings for Every House and Senate Race in 2016

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