Illinois Democrat Brad Schneider, a former congressman who served one term representing the state’s 10th District, is claiming a big lead over his primary rival as he hopes for a rematch with Republican Rep. Robert J. Dold.
According to a memo detailing a survey conducted by Normington Petts for Schneider’s campaign last week and obtained by CQ Roll Call, Schneider holds a 36-point lead over Nancy Rotering — pulling more than half of the support from the seniors, women, union households and liberals who were polled. In a general election matchup, according to a separate memo detailing an internal Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll, Schneider leads Dold by 8 points — including a 15-point advantage among independents and 11-points among women.
When the DCCC’s poll allocated undecided voters according to their likely partisanship, Schneider held onto a 3-point lead, well within the 4 percent margin of error.
The DCCC’s poll differs from another poll commissioned by the Human Rights Campaign from Clarity Campaign Labs last month, which found Dold with a 4-point lead over Schneider.
Illinois’ 10th congressional District is perhaps the most Democratic-leaning seat currently held by a House Republican. President Barack Obama won the district with 58 percent in 2012 — the same year in which Schneider ousted Dold by just more than 2,500 votes. But two years later, without Obama on the ballot, Dold took back the seat — beating Schneider by nearly 6,000 votes.
In this presidential election cycle, Democrats are making another play for the seat, which prompted Republicans at the National Republican Congressional Committee to add Dold to the Patriot Program , its incumbent protection effort.