At the Races: The big sort

By Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Niels Lesniewski

Posted November 7, 2024 at 2:35pm

Race calls are still coming in and control of the House is still up for grabs, although Republicans maintain an edge.

A handful of key race calls by The Associated Press have been made since we landed in your inboxes midday Wednesday, most notably in New York’s Long Island-based 4th District, where Democrat Laura Gillen defeated GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito; Pennsylvania’s 8th District, where Republican Rob Bresnahan defeated Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright; and in Pennsylvania’s 7th District, where Republican Ryan McKenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wild.

“The issues that we ran on were the kitchen table issues. It was about the economy, inflation, it was about the problems that you see on the southern border. It was about crime and our streets, so everything we ran off of was what families are talking about every single day. We stayed out of partisan politics, and we stayed to the issues that really make a difference,” Bresnahan told Fox News.

As far as significant holds for each party, in Virginia, the AP called Virginia’s 7th District for Eugene Vindman, although Derrick Anderson, his Republican opponent, said Wednesday night that the process was “ongoing” and thousands of ballots remain uncounted. Anderson is set to address his supporters on Thursday. In Virginia’s 2nd District, GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans’ race was also called in her favor. Rep. Scott Perry held off a challenge from Democrat Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania’s 10 District, and in North Carolina’s 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis beat Republican Laurie Buckhout.

Ohio Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes won reelection, while Republican incumbents Derrick Van Orden and John James won their reelection bids in Wisconsin and Michigan, respectively.

Democrats got some good news on the Senate side when the AP called the races for Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin. Baldwin and Slotkin join a small group of senators who were elected at a time when their state also voted for a president of the opposite party.

“My core decision to run was the belief that the state must continue to be a place that anyone from anywhere can get into the middle class, no matter your background, no matter your ZIP code. That is fundamental,” Slotkin said Wednesday. “I think this is the existential issue of our time, and I think yesterday’s results reinforce that.”

Baldwin on Thursday said she respected the state’s choice of Donald Trump as president.

President Joe Biden addressed the nation from the Rose Garden on Thursday, urging the nation to accept the results of the election. He said the country should lower the temperature and “lay to rest the question about the integrity of the American electoral system.” He invoked something he’s said previously while referencing the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

“For some people, it’s a time for victory, to state the obvious. For others, it’s a time of loss,” Biden said. “We accept the choice the country made. I’ve said many times, ‘You can’t love your country only when you win.’”

Starting gate

Harris headwinds: The weakness at the top of the ticket caused challenges for House Democrats in key races, including in blue states, with the gains in House races not coming close to what the DCCC would have wanted in places like California and New York.

Judgment: One thing the GOP can do, regardless of the House, is nominate and confirm judges for the federal judiciary, adding to the 234 lifetime appointments Trump made in his first term, Ryan Tarinelli reports.

Health effects: Sandhya Raman, Lia DeGroot and Jessie Hellmann take a look at the health policymaking consequences of Tuesday’s wins and losses. Among many key developments? The defeat of Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., means Democrats will need a new leader for their caucus on the Veterans’ Affairs Committee.

ICYMI

It’s 2026 somewhere: The crypto-backed political network Fairshake and its affiliated super PACs announced this week they have already secured $78 million for the 2026 midterm elections. The group says it has $30 million in the bank and $48 million in new commitments, including $25 million announced last week from Coinbase and more than $23 million from Andreessen Horowitz. The crypto industry was a major player this cycle, placing a particularly big bet on Republican Bernie Moreno, who defeated Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. “Elizabeth Warren ally Sherrod Brown was a top opponent of cryptocurrency and thanks to our efforts, he will be leaving the Senate,” Fairshake said in a statement.

Down on Main Street: The center-right Republican Main Street Partnership celebrated wins by several of its swing district members, including the aforementioned Kiggans in Virginia as well as Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th District of New York. “With commanding majorities and record numbers in both the Senate and House, Main Street Republicans will return to Congress ready to lead decisively and deliver real results,” the group’s CEO, Sarah Chamberlain, said in a statement. She notes that the Main Street Caucus will have nearly 100 members, more than at any point in its history. However, key races involving other Main Street members — including Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska, Ken Calvert of California and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona — have yet to be called by the AP.

Less Beyoncé, more diners: Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont offers his take on why Harris lost. “Kamala should have been in a diner having a cup of coffee and apple pie with a couple of the guys instead of Oprah and Beyoncé,” the Democrat told Bloomberg. He called the election “a wipeout” and said he hopes it’s a “wake-up call for Democrats.”

Minnesota milestone: With the election of Democrat Kelly Morrison in the 3rd District, Minnesota’s congressional delegation will be majority female for the first time.

What we’re reading

In retrospect: The Harris campaign rejected a Congressional Black Caucus plan to target undecided Black voters in swing states, Politico reports.

Mind the gap: Yes, there is a gender gap between Republicans and Democrats, and it grows into a chasm when taking into account education levels, pollsters Celinda Lake and Amanda Iovino write in The New York Times.

California vs. Trump: Democratic officials in the Golden State are expected to reprise their roles as leaders of the anti-Trump resistance, CalMatters reports. During Trump’s first term, California sued the federal government more than 100 times over his regulatory policies.

Power player: The 19th looks at the role of veteran Florida political operative Susie Wiles, one of the architects of Trump’s victory and a likely major player in his administration.

Casey-Trump: This preelection Wall Street Journal opinion column about Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., running an ad highlighting his support for parts of the Trump agenda is worth another read, given the results in the Keystone State.

Flipping the Rio Grande Valley: KUT News examined the political realignment underway in South Texas. “Texas is not getting more blue,” newly elected GOP Rep. Craig Goldman told the station. “Texas is getting more red, and that is proven by what happened in the Rio Grande Valley.”

The count: -26

That was the score on Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index for October, the difference between the percentage surveyed who said the economy is “getting worse” (62 percent) versus “getting better” (32 percent). That was based on an Oct. 1-12 Gallup poll and, as Gallup stated in its write-up, “is more in line with elections the incumbent party lost (in 1992 and 2020) than won.”

Coming up

Your At The Races team will be breaking down the election results in a Wednesday afternoon webinar and looking ahead at what comes next. Register here to join us.