Today is D-Day for Mike Johnson’s speakership, as he faces a mini revolt by a handful of Republican members hell-bent on their way or the highway — a replay of a failed strategy we’ve seen before, but this time they haven’t been able to offer an alternative candidate or even a Plan B.

But as much as this is Johnson’s challenge to overcome, today’s vote for speaker is just as much a test for the Republican Party as a whole — a test with two critical implications. One of the first duties of a new Congress is the certification of the presidential election scheduled for Jan. 6. 

It is also a chance for the Republican majority in the House to show the American people it can govern. A repeat of the internal but very public fight that faced Kevin McCarthy orchestrated by the same cast of characters would do nothing but undercut the idea that the GOP is ready to lead. 

President-elect Donald Trump has used the transition expeditiously to build expectations for action on Day 1. If there is one thing the electorate clearly wants, it is a focus on getting things done on key issues that dominated the election. A lengthy delay or anything close to it would be the antithesis to that, beginning with the process for certifying the presidential election. Failing to quickly elect a speaker would also jeopardize crucial policy and communications initiatives that will define what Republican leadership means for the country.

Any delay puts that opportunity at risk.

The last time Republicans elected a speaker, it took 22 days. We can only hope for rationality to prevail this time, but what has become a tyranny of the minority seems to have also become a part of the Republican House culture. Because of continuing small majorities, even the tiniest number of members within the Republican conference can depose a Republican speaker at will, undermining the decision of their colleagues. 

This is not a new development. Since the Gingrich revolution in 1994, four of the six Republican speakers have been forced out by their own party or simply threw in the towel, tired of the dissension in their ranks. First, was Gingrich himself, despite bringing Republicans out of the wilderness after 40 years of Democratic control in the House. John Boehner was the next victim of the “speaker’s curse,” even though he had won back House control in 2010, gaining 63 seats.

Then came Paul Ryan, who led the passage of the Republican tax cuts in 2017 but was rewarded with a constant barrage of criticism and finally said “enough” and announced his retirement. Kevin McCarthy managed to win the speakership, but once again a small group of backbenchers finally forced him out. Johnson has been fortunate not to become the fifth Republican speaker sent packing, but he needed Democratic votes to survive, something unlikely to happen again.

Electing a House speaker isn’t supposed to be a game of musical chairs, but it certainly is beginning to feel that way, at least for Republicans. And the shame of it all is the willingness of a few members to put Republicans’ unique opportunity to govern at risk. 

The challenge facing the Republican conference is how to turn an across-the-board win into a successful implementation of policy and transform those successes into a longer-term governing majority that earns the support of the electorate. It is important to remember that Democrats lost voters because of Biden’s policies, and independents have now surpassed them. 

Republicans in two successive elections have made up a larger portion of the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in exit poll history. There is a unique opportunity for Republicans to expand this into a broader majority coalition if they can effectively govern. 

So the speaker’s vote today is more than a choice of leadership. It is the first opportunity for Republicans to show the electorate their focus will be on governing by fulfilling the promises of the campaign. That means Republicans must be ready to move forward out of the starting gate on the key issues of the economy and inflation, along with immigration.

How much progress Republicans and Trump make in the first six months of the new term will have significant political implications for the next election as well. Historically, the first two years of a “hat-trick” presidency, control of Congress and the White House, have been critical to incoming administrations, as typically the party in the White House loses the majority in the House in the first midterm election. 

This has been true of four of the last five presidencies. To understand the significance of this on policy efforts, look no further than Bill Clinton. After losing the House in 1994 thanks to a botched health care initiative, Clinton was forced to say the era of big government was over and accept welfare reform and major tax cuts. When Obama lost the House in 2010, again the result of bad policies, he eventually had to extend most of the Bush tax cuts. And for Trump after 2018, it meant accepting Democratic spending increases. 

Losing the House in the first midterm is not just a political loss; it creates a massive policy headwind and, more recently, one-term presidencies. So, if there was a mandate in this last election, it won’t last long if Republicans can’t hold the House in 2026. Gone will be the broad change in policy direction voters demanded in 2024 and Republicans promised — and with that, a possible political realignment favoring Republicans that emerged in November.

If the Trump agenda is to succeed, the last thing he needs is a hostile Democratic House obstructing his policies for the final two years of his presidency, which gets us to today’s vote.

The best way to retain a Republican House in 2026 and the passage of Trump administration policies is by focusing on improving the economy and inflation, dealing with immigration and ending Republican division. 

That starts by electing Mike Johnson speaker today so Republicans can get to work. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.