Next week will mark the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term, a good time for Republicans to assess how the electorate now views progress on economic issues, especially inflation, the key to their across-the-board victory in November. 

In the 2024 Winning the Issues post-election survey, 30 percent of the electorate believed inflation was getting better, while 48 percent thought it was getting worse. In the April 8–10 Winning the Issues survey, only 17 percent thought inflation was getting better, while 57 percent now say it is getting worse.

This despite the release of the April 10 inflation numbers that showed the inflation rate had gone from 2.8 percent in February to 2.4 percent in March, a significant drop. Unfortunately for Republicans, that positive news was overwhelmed by the president’s fights over immigration, DOGE, his controversial tariff policies followed by plunging markets and disappearing retirement accounts, and a myriad of other contentious issues.

That negative news imbalance has seen Republicans’ and Trump’s advantage on economic issue handling begin to slip just as Washington turns to the 2026 election. Independents in particular have moved away from Republicans. 

But before Democrats break out the champagne, the survey also showed that the Republican slippage has not benefited Democrats. Their bad post-election numbers have remained stagnant as the party clings to the economic and social policies behind their defeat, with some Democratic leaders even calling for more progressive policies. 

In the last election, voters preferred Republicans to handle inflation by 12 points. That margin has now dropped to 3 percent, but not because Democrats improved. In the post-election survey, they were at 40 percent, exactly where they find themselves today. 

Republicans, however, dropped by 9 points, going from 52 percent to 43 percent, in large part because of a sharp decline in support from independents. These crucial voters went from favoring Republicans by 13 points last November, to even among both parties, with their preference for Democrats also dropping 1 point. 

But Republicans may be facing a potentially broader problem than inflation issue handling. When looking at the overall issue of the economy, Republicans have gone from an 11-point issue-handling advantage in the 2024 election (52R to 41D) to only a 1-point advantage today (44R to 43D).

Once again, it was independents who drove the GOP decline, going from plus-13 for Republicans to minus-2. On the issue of taxes, there was also slippage, although less so, as it went from a plus-6 advantage for Republicans (49R to 43D) to plus-3 (44R to 41D). 

One of the key challenges that has emerged for Republicans is that a majority of voters, 53 percent, believe that Trump is not focused enough on the issues of the economy and inflation. Among independents, this jumps to 60 percent. In contrast, 59 percent of the electorate (62 percent of independents) believe he has been too focused on the issue of tariffs. 

Voters have a variety of concerns about tariffs, according to the April 8–10 Winning the Issues survey. First, 70 percent of the electorate believes that “tariffs will make inflation worse by increasing the cost of products,” and 64 percent believes a tariff is a tax. 

Second, 54 percent of the electorate believe tariffs will hurt the economy, while only 19 percent think they will help. 

Additionally, the initial impact of the tariffs has not been positive. In terms of their 401(k)s, retirement plans and retirement savings, 70 percent of the electorate said they had been impacted by what has happened in the stock market, and that included those making between $50,000 and $75,000 a year.

Overall, 71 percent of the electorate believes the middle class lost money in their retirement plans, 401(k)s and personal savings. This should be a red flag for the administration.

Some have countered that it’s only those in the top 10 percent of income who lost money. People aren’t buying it. In fact, only 16 percent of the electorate believes that argument. 

Finally, only 27 percent of the electorate thought they would recoup their market losses by the end of this year.

Given all this, it is not surprising that the electorate does not have a positive view of how Trump has handled the issue of tariffs. Overall, 58 percent disapprove of how Trump is handling tariffs, while 34 percent approve. Even worse, about two-thirds  of independents (65 percent) disapprove, while only 25 percent approve. 

Another concern for Republicans is that Trump’s economic job approval looks a lot like Biden’s in the last election. In the Winning the Issues post-election survey, Biden’s economic job approval was 39 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove. Trump’s is currently 37 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove, with both presidents’ negatives driven by independents. Biden’s economic job approval among them was 34 percent/60 percent approve/disapprove, while Trump’s is now 27 percent/62 percent.

But there is an important distinction between Biden’s numbers and Trump’s numbers. Biden’s numbers were at the conclusion of four years of his economic policies, including the worst inflation in 40 years. For congressional Republicans, the good news is most congressional Democrats still will not acknowledge that the Biden policies are what eventually led to that inflation, nor the struggle most middle-class Americans were feeling last fall, which is why Republicans won the House and the Senate along with the White House.

Republicans were elected to get inflation under control and get the economy back on track. That was clearly the top priority of the electorate. Instead, Republicans have found themselves sidetracked from voters’ No. 1 issue. So far, that has produced a large negative impact on the retirement and savings of the middle class, which has only increased their economic woes. 

It is time for Republicans to refocus on the issue that won them the election — inflation — through tax cuts, less spending, energy expansion, less regulation and support for small business, and earn back that advantage they held on election night on economic issues. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.