The question that faced the House Ways and Means Committee this week was, “Just how much SALT is enough to get the budget reconciliation bill across the finish line?”  

That, of course, is the state and local tax deduction, currently capped by the 2017 tax cut law at $10,000, and at the center of a mini-revolt by members in high-tax states threatening to vote against the overall reconciliation bill without an increase in the SALT deduction to their liking.  

What they’re asking their colleagues to vote for is a bill that would likely decrease taxes for wealthier people in their districts who itemize on their federal tax returns, which is slightly less than 10 percent of all filers nationally. These members are mostly from blue states, but their demands have serious implications for the rest of the country.  

It means anyone in the country who is not wealthy enough to need to itemize — about 90 percent of taxpayers — will have to pay for these tax cuts.

It also means that these blue-state governments will be given a green light to continue to overspend and overtax, knowing that a significant portion of their wealthy voters’ state taxes can be written off and paid for by the federal government.

Middle- and working-class taxpayers in states like Florida or Iowa or Idaho will end up paying for the profligacy of spending by the state governments of New York and Maryland and California.

That’s a big ask and a problem for the majority of the Republican Conference.  

Last week, a group of House members demanded a much bigger SALT increase to as much as $124,000 for couples and told Ways and Means that $30,000 was a nonstarter.  

But Wednesday morning, Ways and Means passed the tax bill out of committee with a $30,000 SALT deduction.  

Now what?  Apparently, more negotiations with leadership and pro-SALT members still threatening to vote against the bill.

Maybe some facts and figures, most from the Congressional Research Service and IRS data, might give some context and clarity to this contentious debate.  

With passage of the the 2017 tax law, the SALT deduction, which had not been limited, was capped at $10,000.  Even that modest deduction reduced federal government revenues by $22.6 billion in 2025.

But if the tax cut law is not extended, the SALT deduction would be reinstated, reducing federal government revenues by $144.7 billion in 2026 and $208.5 billion in 2028. These tax breaks would go to upper-income earners in mostly Democratic states or congressional districts.  

But how many people itemize and take advantage of the SALT deduction that stands in the way of re-upping the 2017 tax cuts?  

Not nearly as many as one might think listening to the argument for raising the deduction.

According to the Congressional Research Service, 9.5 percent of filers nationally claimed the SALT deduction in itemizing their 2022 returns. We know that those who don’t itemize generally have lower incomes than those who do. As a result, the SALT deduction benefited wealthier taxpayers almost entirely. 

Letting the 2017 tax cuts expire would dramatically favor upper-income earners, particularly in Democratic states at the expense of moderate and lower-income people in Republican states.  

Without the extension, the unlimited SALT deduction would be restored. If that occurs, the standard deduction —which almost 90 percent of American filers use — would be cut by 45 percent, the child care tax credit would be reduced and income tax rates would generally go up by around 3 percent for most individuals. 

It means that for every upper-income filer who would get a big tax break, potentially nine others with lower incomes would see their taxes go up. Even for those members who are advocating for a SALT deduction, it means that a massive majority in their district would see tax increases. 

So, which states can claim the most SALT deduction users?  

Topping the list where 20 percent of tax filers use SALT is the District of Columbia with 20.4 percent and Maryland with 20 percent, according to the CRS. California comes in third at 15.4 percent. 

Eleven other states are above 10 percent, while the remaining 37 states are in single digits, with 14 of them below 6 percent. The three states below 5 percent are West Virginia (3.4 percent), South Dakota (4.4 percent) and North Dakota (4.6 percent). As mentioned earlier, the national average is 9.5 percent.

Interestingly, while much of the push for a bigger SALT deduction has come from New York members, it ranks 14th-highest with a rate of 10.2 percent. That amounts to a one-sided, 90-10 issue — the wrong way statewide for this delegation.

CRS also looked at SALT claims by congressional district. Just to show how out of control taxes are in California, of the 20 congressional districts that have the highest SALT claims, 10 are from the Golden State. 

Of the remaining 10 districts with the highest use, eight are from the Washington metro area: Maryland with four, Virginia with three and D.C. with one.  The remaining two districts in the top 20 are from New York and New Jersey.  

Meanwhile, CRS found that 275 districts are in single digits, with 139 below 6 percent in terms of SALT claims. 

But even if the cap is increased to $30,000, expecting voters in Oklahoma, Kentucky and other states to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy so state governments like California and New York can continue to overspend seems very unfair.

The obvious goal for the vast majority of the House Republican Conference and Republicans in the Senate is to not raise taxes on anyone. Without the support of these moderate blue-state Republicans, President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” may face an avoidable setback.

Many of the pro-SALT members are in difficult swing districts, so strongly advocating for their constituents is understandable. But when an overwhelming majority of their voters don’t benefit from the SALT deduction and the end of the tax cuts would be to their detriment, it looks like they are on the wrong side of a 90-10 issue.

Using their leadership to bring down taxes at home might be a better bet. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.