In the aftermath of Tuesday’s off-off year election, Democrats today may party like it’s 2018, because it kind of is. The gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey were an abridged rerun of the disappointing off-year congressional election defeat Republicans suffered in the president’s first term.

Same top issue — the economy. Same GOP messaging — immigration and social issues. Same results among independents and women — a bad night for Republicans.

Just as in 2018, the economy and kitchen-table issues drove the vote, and not in the direction of Republicans. 

The conventional wisdom going in was that Democrats would win both governorships given their blue-state status, the candidates’ anti-Trump strategy, and the new “it” word, “affordability,” dominating the Democrats’ messaging. The surprise was the size of the Democratic candidates’ margins. With more than 95 percent of the vote in for both states, Abigail Spanberger was leading by 15 points and Mikie Sherrill was leading by 13. So why were the margins so large? 

Based on exit polls as of Wednesday afternoon, here are five factors that were in play that Republicans need to understand going into the 2026 midterms. 

1) Independents

Republicans’ loss of independents was one of the deciding factors in both gubernatorial elections.

In Virginia, independents made up 33 percent of the electorate. Spanberger won them by 19 points, (59-40), the same margin as Biden’s in 2020 and a major reversal of Glenn Youngkin’s 9-point margin (54-45) in 2021. 

In New Jersey, Sherrill carried independents by 13 points (56-43). 

In 2018, Republicans lost independents by 12 points (42-54). They must do better with independents after losing them in the last four elections at the House level. 

In 2024, Donald Trump carried the seven battleground states, five of which had Senate races. Of those, only one Republican candidate won independents — Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania — and he was also the only one of the five to win his Senate race.

2) Women

A second major factor was a huge shift by women toward Democrats. In Virginia, Spanberger won women by 30 points (65-35), a remarkable margin outdoing Biden’s 2020 effort, when he won women in the state by 23. Youngkin closed the margin to 7 points, but Spanberger turned that around. 

Sherrill carried women by 25 points (62-37) in New Jersey.

In 2018, House Republicans lost women by 19 points (40-59) but made up ground during the Biden term, losing women by only 6 points nationally (46-52) in 2024, while Trump lost them by 8 (45-53). Tuesday’s election reversal with women should concern GOP congressional leadership and the president. 

3) Party and personal brand 

It’s not surprising that in both these blue states, Democratic favorable-unfavorables were better than Republicans’. But in Virginia, Democrats were at 48-49 (favorable-unfavorable), while Republicans were at 42-55 — which is a bit surprising given that Youngkin’s job approval was positive, 53 to 43. GOP candidate Winsome Earle-Sears never capitalized on Youngkin’s record or popularity, losing 27 percent of those who approved of Youngkin’s performance to Spanberger. 

In contrast, Spanberger was able to win 20 percent of those voters who had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. 

In New Jersey, Democrats were at 49-48 (favorable-unfavorable), while Republicans were relatively close at 46-51. Much like Spanberger, Sherrill was able to win over 17 percent of the voters who had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. 

For both of them, the ability to separate themselves somewhat from their party’s unfavorable brand was clearly an asset. 

It’s worth noting that Spanberger’s favorable-unfavorable was at 54-43 and Earle-Sears’ was at 43-53, very similar to Sherrill’s favorable-unfavorable at 56-43 and Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s at 45-54.

4) President Trump

Given the Democratic nature of these two states, Trump’s negative job approval isn’t a surprise. In Virginia, his job approval was 39-59 (approve-disapprove); in New Jersey, 42-56. 

Back to the 2018 national exit poll, Trump was at 45-54. 

Both Spanberger and Sherrill made opposing Trump an issue. In the exit polls, people were asked whether a reason for their vote was to either oppose or support Trump. Only 16 percent of Virginia voters said they voted to support Trump, while 38 percent voted to oppose him. In New Jersey, it was worse for Trump, with 13 percent support and 41 percent oppose. However, in both states, the largest percentage said Trump was not a factor in their vote. 

In the 2018 national exit poll, it was 26 percent citing support for Trump and 38 percent citing opposition. 

5) The economy

While the economy was a key issue in both states, voters’ views of their state economies differed. In Virginia, 58 percent said the state’s economy was excellent/good, while 40 percent said not so good/poor. Those identifying it as their top issue, 48 percent, voted for Spanberger by a 63-36 margin, while the Earle-Sears campaign opted to focus almost entirely on social issues.

Despite the positive view of the state’s economy and Youngkin’s job performance, Spanberger was still able to win the issue, which says more about the Earle-Sears and her strategists than the issue itself. 

In New Jersey, however, voters were unhappy with the state’s economy, with only 40 percent saying it was excellent/good, while 57 percent said not so good/poor. This was driven by concerns about two issues: high taxes and rising electricity costs. 

In terms of issues, taxes took the top spot in New Jersey at 35 percent, with the economy a close second at 32 percent. Those citing taxes favored Ciattarelli by a 62-37 margin, while those who said the economy favored Sherrill 66-33. Basically, a draw.

In 2018, 68 percent of voters thought the economy was excellent/good, up from 36 percent in 2016. Yet Republicans chose immigration as their closing message rather than the improving economy or their signature tax cut bill, a decision still costing them votes today. 

Republicans got a wake-up call Tuesday with independents and women shifting away from the GOP, much as they did in 2018. It is time to develop an effective strategy to win independents and women, and get back to economic issues.

If Republicans fail to explain to voters what the “big, beautiful bill” is going to do to deal with cost of living, it could be 2018 all over again. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.