Recently, the White House has signaled a renewed focus on the economy and the issue of affordability specifically. This is good news for the country, but particularly good news for congressional Republicans whose economic agenda has been overshadowed by the Democrats’ shutdown. 

Since President Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office, inflation and the cost of living have been stubborn issues for the White House. If anyone needed proof, the recent off-year elections provided ample evidence that the electorate continues to prioritize kitchen table issues. In the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the economy was critical in defining who won, with one difference from 2024.

In that election, the Biden economy was the issue that gave Republicans the political trifecta — the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. In 2025, it was voter unhappiness with the Trump administration’s efforts to bring down the cost of living that gave Democrats a winning night Nov. 4.

Because the elections took place during the federal government shutdown, many political prognosticators expected that to be a big factor, but it was not the shutdown itself that decided the outcome. 

In fact, going into the election, a CBS national survey (Oct. 29-31) showed that Republicans in Congress and Trump fared better in their handling of the shutdown than Democrats in Congress. After the election, another CBS national survey (Nov. 13-14) showed that the country overwhelmingly believed that Republicans succeeded in their handling of the shutdown over the Democrats by a 55-6 margin.

Republicans won the battle of the shutdown but lost the November elections.

The central point of conflict during the shutdown was the debate over the extension of the temporary enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. Alone, that issue was not enough to give Democrats a shutdown win. 

But it did do something else; it reminded voters of the difficulties they still face with rising costs from food to housing to health care. 

Going back to the October CBS national survey, voters, by a wide margin, 62 percent to 7 percent, said they believed prices of goods and services had gone up. 

In his “60 Minutes” interview with Norah O’Donnell, however, the president’s response of “We have no inflation” and “Our groceries are down” flew in the face of voters’ reality — which is reflected in the current RCP average for Trump’s handling of inflation at 36 percent to 61 percent approve/disapprove.  

When Trump took office in January this year, the year-over-year inflation rate was 3 percent. By April, it had dropped to 2.3 percent. Since then, it has slowly ticked back up to 3 percent through September. Perhaps the most challenging number for the country has been the 8.9 percent increase in meat prices since last January. 

When families are paying the price for hamburger that they used to pay for steak, there’s a problem, and there’s no sugarcoating it. The same goes for housing and health insurance. The bright spot is the price of gas, which in the long run may help deliver the lower inflation rate the president wants.

Trump can legitimately make the case that the economic policies implemented by the Biden administration and the Democratic Congress delivered the worst inflation in 40 years, and digging out of their economic hole will take time. But it will also take a more sustained focus by the White House on the steps they are taking to address the problem, especially for independents, who shifted dramatically in this year’s elections. 

In an Economist/YouGov national survey (Oct. 31-Nov. 3), Trump’s inflation job approval with independents was 21 percent approve and 72 percent disapprove. In the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won independents by 19 points (59-40). That was the same margin as Joe Biden’s in the state in 2020 (57-38). 

Current Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin won the governorship in 2021, beating his Democratic opponent by 9 points (54-45) with independents, but Spanberger was able to reestablish the Biden 2020 coalition in the state. If Biden’s Virginia effort of +19 among independents is a subset of his national effort winning independents by 13 (54-41), then the 2025 result in Virginia is concerning. 

In 2022, Democrats won them by 2 points, and Republicans won 222 House seats. In 2024, Democrats won independents by 1 point, and Republicans got 220 seats. What would the result be if Democrats won independents by 13? Not a particularly hard math problem.

To focus only on whether Virginia and New Jersey are blue states (they are) misses the larger point. Republicans need to understand that the coalition that elected Biden in 2020 reconstituted itself this fall because independents wanted to send the White House and Congress a blunt message: 

“We are unhappy with the state of the economy, and we expected more progress by now” — that is a message that could have serious implications for 2026. 

“Could” is the operative word. While Republicans lost this fall’s elections because they lost independents, next year’s election outcome isn’t preordained.

Democrats have tried to change the debate by renaming inflation the affordability issue. A thesaurus is a wonderful thing. But there is a method to their madness. Using the word “inflation” would remind the country of the Democrats’ failed economic policies under Biden, still an albatross around their collective necks going into 2026.  

The issues that drove the recent November election — inflation and the economy — will likely be the major issues next year. Republicans have the opportunity and still have time to take the affordability issue head on, although this isn’t a quick or easy task. Trump and his party need to acknowledge that fact and reject the kind of sugarcoating that characterized Biden’s economic messaging. 

This fall’s elections are a reminder that voter patience isn’t limitless when it comes to their top issue. Trump’s return to the affordability issue is an important step in the right direction. His decision to reduce tariffs on a variety of goods, including beef, coffee, tomatoes and tropical fruit, to name a few, should help lower some prices at the grocery store, but Republicans must make discernible progress on the issue — progress that voters feel. 

People voted for change in 2024. If they don’t get it, if inflation doesn’t begin to recede, they may vote for change again in 2026.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.