Campaigns · 118th Congress
At the Races: Please bet responsibly
A statewide exit poll after the 2022 contest found Latino voters supported Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin, a result Democrats are seeking to replicate.
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2024 presidential outlook: Meet the new race, same as the old race
Biden won each of them by 1 percentage point or less in 2020, and either party’s nominee will likely need to win three of the four states in 2024 in order to win nationwide.
Campaigns · 117th Congress
Oregon ratings: Schrader faces choice of two districts, both favoring Democrats
Democrats, who have had a 4-1 advantage in the House delegation for more than two decades, are trying to add a fifth seat to the column.
Video · 116th Congress
What race ratings really mean and how we create them
Gonzales and Thomas McKinless [jwp-video n=”1″] Each election cycle, race ratings are an integral part of the discussion about the fight for the House and Senate majorities.
Video · 115th Congress
25 Race Ratings Changes Less Than a Week Before Midterms
Banks [jwp-video n=”1″] After two years of analyzing and prognosticating, it’s finally almost here: Nov. 6, Election Day. Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L.
Video · 115th Congress
Democrats Have At Least 20 House Takeover Opportunities in These 4 States
Gonzales and Thomas McKinless [jwp-video n=”1″] In several states with weak or no GOP candidates at the top of the ballot, low Republican turnout in this nonpresidential election
Hawaii Primary Results: Hurricane Iselle Delays Force Brian Schatz, Colleen Hanabusa to Wait
Overall, Schatz and his allies outspent Hanabusa and her allies on the airwaves by about 2 to 1.
John Tierney Survived 2012. Now What?
Last cycle, Democrats had all but written off Tierney as a goner, but he managed a 4,300-vote victory — about 1 percent — over the Republicans’ best candidate for the seat in years, the affable
Indiana: Howey Poll Gives Donnelly Big Edge Over Mourdock
McLaughlin & Associates conducted Mourdock’s poll of 600 likely voters from Oct. 30 to Nov.1 and had a margin of error of 4 points.
Indiana: Richard Mourdock Apologizes to Those Who Misunderstood Comments
“I didn’t want her to be dragged into a situation today that, No. 1, she might get off the plane not knowing what she was going to be seeing,” Mourdock said at the press conference.
Minnesota: Polls Show 8th District Race Deadlocked
The battle for Minnesota’s 8th district is deadlocked, according to three polls released since Oct. 1, although survey data suggest that the Democratic challenger in this race has the momentum.
DCCC Cancels Three Big City Buys: Philly, Boston and Chicago
House Democrats cut more than $1 million in television time in the Philadelphia market today in addition to eliminating major reservations in Boston and Chicago, according to a Democrat who tracks media
Wisconsin: New GOP Poll Gives Sean Duffy an 11-Point Edge
The survey interviewed 400 likely voters in the district from Sept. 30 through Oct. 1. It had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Pennsylvania: GOP Survey Sees Tight Race in 12th
The poll interviewed 400 likely voters from Sept. 30 through Oct. 1.
Nebraska: Deb Fischer, Bob Kerrey Commit to Third Debate
The debate will take place on Oct. 1 and will air statewide on public television, radio and online. The pair have squared off once before.
Illinois: New Democratic Poll Shows Robert Dold and Brad Schneider Tied
Updated 1:30 p.m. | Freshman Rep. Robert Dold (R) and businessman Brad Schneider (D) are in a dead heat in the race for an Illinois House seat, according to a new Democratic poll released today.
House Race Ratings: Changes in Michigan and Washington
If Democrats want to compete in the 3rd or the 11th, two things must happen: 1. Democrats must aggressively define Amash and Bentivolio early.
Illinois: Jason Plummer Poll Shows Him With Double-Digit Lead
The poll surveyed 400 likely voters Aug. 1-2 and had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
Arizona: Martha McSally in D.C. for NRCC Candidate School
She added that her campaign’s goal is to raise “another $315k” by Sept. 1.
Virginia: Tim Kaine, George Allen Expand TV Airtime in Senate Race
Tim Kaine’s Senate campaign purchased another $1 million in television airtime for the fall.