ANALYSIS — Vice President JD Vance’s Senate record left gaps about his views on foreign policy and the use of U.S. military force, but his text messages on a leaked group chat about counterstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen offered telling clues. The former Ohio senator, his messages on the Signal platform show, “is the most thoroughgoing and consistent ‘America Firster’ in the administration, even more than [Donald] Trump," said Giselle Donnelly, a former policy group director for the House Armed Services Committee. During his brief two-year tenure in the Senate, the Marine Corps veteran was not a member of the Armed Services or any other national security committee. His legislative record and public statements mostly showed a few things: his opposition to American aid to Ukraine, concerns about China and his staunch support for Israel. Legislation introduced by Vance largely focused on domestic cultural issues. There was a 2024 bill that offered some foreshadowing, aimed at forcing federal government agencies to dismantle “diversity, equity, inclusion,” or DEI, offices. Another, introduced in October 2023, would have blocked the State Department from issuing passports that didn't specify the owner's gender as either — and only — male or female. Vance also pushed bills intended to help out back home, like one to require a study into the health impacts after a train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, that released toxic chemicals. The legislation he sponsored on foreign affairs and national security matters focused mostly on his skepticism of U.S. aid for Ukraine and concerns that the American defense industrial base was not prepared for a major military conflict. He also sponsored four bills on immigration or border security, which became a campaign focal point after he joined Trump atop the Republican presidential ticket. Barnstorming the country for several months as the party’s vice presidential nominee, Vance largely focused on domestic and cultural issues. If the vice president held strong views on when it is proper to unleash America’s military arsenal on its adversaries, he had not spoken in depth about them since first seeking elected office. But his views on using U.S. military force and clues about the kind of advice he might give Trump behind closed doors were revealed in the Signal text message chain among senior administration officials that the editor of The Atlantic was inadvertently added to. The National Security Council has verified the accuracy of the messages on the commercial app, which the officials used before U.S. military strikes in Yemen. American military air and naval crews carried out strikes on March 15 against dozens of Houthi targets inside Yemen. The strikes were part of what Trump administration officials since have described as an offensive to downgrade the Houthi group while also sending a message to its chief sponsor, Iran. That morning (a Saturday) and the day before, Vance participated in a Signal discussion with other top Trump officials. According to the Atlantic editor, an account labeled “JD Vance” wrote at 8:16 a.m.: “Team, I am out for the day doing an economic event in Michigan. But I think we are making a mistake.” Vance then reportedly reminded the group of Cabinet-level officials: “3 percent of US trade runs through the suez. 40 percent of European trade does. There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, to send a message.” While other Trump lieutenants on the Signal chain were pushing hard in favor of striking the Iran-backed group, the messages suggest Vance’s private counsel to Trump would be less hawkish — and less willing than past vice presidents to help America’s allies. “This is the nub of Vance’s worldview: that the United States has foolishly squandered decades of effort pacifying and protecting Europe,” Donnelly, the former House Armed Services aide now with the conservative American Enterprise Institute, wrote in an email. “Never mind that, for five centuries prior to 1945, that continent has been the cockpit of global conflict — only brought to a halt by the sustained exercise of American power.” Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian economic minister who is now president of the Kyiv School of Economics, wrote on social media that the Signal chain “gives a fascinating window into how the debate evolves, what counts, the priorities, and the overall culture and strategy of the team,” adding in another post focused on Vance’s contributions: “The real story is in their messages. JD Vance argues it’s Europe’s problem, not America’s. Others push back.” The messages also suggest that any advice the commander in chief receives from his No. 2, and potential successor, would not be limited to solely how a series of strikes would affect the global chess board. Rather, Vance’s mention of goods moving through the Suez Canal suggests his advice would as much be rooted in how it would affect America economically. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself,” Vance reportedly told the group. “But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.” “Vance’s strategic horizon is short as well as narrow,” Donnelly said. “Thus he frets about a ‘spike’ in oil prices, discounting the larger and longer-term benefits that come with freedom of navigation in the Suez and Red Sea.” ‘Anti-European resentment’ Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, agreed Wednesday that Vance’s messages reveal a reluctance on using military force and Euro-skepticism. But, in a direct message to a reporter on social media, he added of Vance: “The big issue [is] he/they didn’t bring their concerns to the president. In the first term they would have.” Vance speaks at the Munich Security Conference in Germany in February. (Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images file photo) He was referring to Vance's warning to the group before the Houthi strikes that he was “not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now.” Donnelly said she assessed that revelation “startlingly.” Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote on X that in the Signal group chat revelations, Vance "once again comes out as driven by deep anti-European resentment.” For his part, Vance, since taking office, has said he "fundamentally" believes that the U.S. and Europe are on the "same team." A Vance spokesman had not responded to a request for comment on the criticisms as of press time. Vance’s views on Europe first became more clear in February when he attended the Munich Security Conference and, referring to the second Trump administration, warned the mostly European audience that there was “a new sheriff in town.” “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia. It’s not China,” Vance told a silent hall in Munich. “It’s not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within." He said his top worry for the continent was “the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.” Researchers at the United States Studies Centre, an Australia-based research group, highlighted in a brief published in July why tracking Vance’s foreign policy views and his role in a second Trump administration would be telling. "And with Trump’s backing, Vance could also be well set up for his own run for the presidency in 2028,” the report stated. “Paying close attention to his foreign policy philosophy as it evolves in the coming months may prove crucial to understanding the contours of a second Trump term — or indeed a future Vance administration.”
