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How Iraq Resolution Dissidents Fare Politically at Home

House Republicans voting for the resolution of disapproval (17)
– Michael N. Castle, Delaware’s At-Large
Long a partisan swing state, Delaware recently has leaned increasingly Democratic. But eight-term Rep. Castle is a long-popular moderate who previously served eight years as governor.
– Howard Coble, North Carolina’s 6th
After a pair of close races at the start of his 12-term career, Coble has cruised to easy wins in this central North Carolina GOP stronghold.
– Thomas M. Davis III, Virginia’s 11th
His visible engagement on local issues and relatively moderate profile benefits seven-term incumbent Davis, who has long had ambitions to serve in the Senate. But a Democratic trend in the Northern Virginia suburbs he represents is making him less safe.
– John J. “Jimmy” Duncan Jr., Tennessee’s 2nd
A member of a local political dynasty in east Tennessee, 10-term Rep. Duncan has name ID and a partisan cushion in this Republican stronghold.
– Phil English, Pennsylvania’s 3rd
English, in his seventh term, combines GOP loyalties with some moderate overtones, including an outreach to organized labor. But in the anti-Republican mood of 2006, his vote share in his Erie-centered district dropped 6 points from two years earlier.
– Wayne T. Gilchrest, Maryland’s 1st
Though not exactly a maverick, this mild-mannered former teacher, now in his ninth House term, has distanced himself from party leaders before, especially on environmental issues.
– Bob Inglis, South Carolina’s 4th
Straying from the party line is a relatively rare thing for the conservative Inglis. One of the few House members to stick to a term-limit pledge in the 1990s, he lost a Senate race in 1998 but returned to win an open House seat in 2004 and now is in his fifth term overall.
Timothy V. Johnson, Illinois’ 15th
Johnson, a moderate Republican in his fourth term, has a largely rural eastern Illinois district that is Republican enough to consistently provide him with comfortable margins.
– Walter B. Jones, North Carolina’s 3rd
The namesake son of a late conservative Democratic House veteran, Jones had to explain his early and vocal criticism of Bush’s handling of the war to his strongly conservative constituency in 2006, but won a seventh term with ease. The district contains the Marine Corps’ massive Camp Lejeune installation.
– Ric Keller, Florida’s 8th
After having to battle for a fourth term in 2006 in an Orlando-area district, Keller is likely to face another Democratic initiative to oust him next year.
– Mark Steven Kirk, Illinois’ 10th
An image as a leading House GOP moderate, combined with strong intellectual skills and a background in foreign policy, appeared to give Kirk political security in Chicago’s northern suburbs. But his percentage dropped sharply as he bid for a fourth term in last year’s tough political atmosphere, and Democrats may try to probe his vulnerability.
– Steven C. LaTourette, Ohio’s 14th
Bush’s 2004 showing among LaTourette’s northeast Ohio voters suggests this is close to a swing district. But a weak Democratic recruiting effort in 2006 gave the party little chance of seriously testing the incumbent as he won a seventh term with ease.
– Ron Paul, Texas’ 14th
A physician and former Libertarian Party presidential nominee, Paul has the nickname of “Dr. No” — earned mainly from his contrarian opposition to nearly all spending bills — that extends to some military issues he views as foreign entanglements. In his ninth full term over three separate tenures, Paul has taken a tentative step toward entering the 2008 GOP presidential race.
– Tom Petri, Wisconsin’s 6th
Now in his 14th full term, Petri has had only one relatively close re-election contest and has run several times without Democratic opposition. So he has the latitude now and then to differ with his party.
– Jim Ramstad, Minnesota’s 3rd
Ramstad’s relatively moderate views and strong personal popularity have made Democrats view him as virtually untouchable after nine election victories. But Bush’s narrow lead here in 2004 suggests Democrats would have a shot in this suburban Twin Cities district should Ramstad ever retire.
– Fred Upton, Michigan’s 6th
In his 11th term, Upton has a generally conservative record, but has stood apart on some issues ranging from the environment to gun control to fiscal issues — and now the Iraq war.
– James T. Walsh, New York’s 25th
Based on the 2006 results, Walsh may be highest on the Democrats’ 2008 target list among Republicans who broke with their party on the Iraq resolution. After being bolstered for years by his seat on the Appropriations Committee, Walsh faced the political fight of his career in 2006 before narrowly prevailing to win a 10th term.
House Democrats voting against the resolution of disapproval (2)
– Jim Marshall, Georgia’s 8th
Marshall’s break with the Democratic line on the Iraq resolution wasn’t a new thing: He has been more supportive of Bush’s Iraq policy than most Democrats throughout the conflict. His success at projecting an image as a conservative Democrat was vital to his win for a third term in 2006, when he had to overcome former GOP Rep. Mac Collins and an unfavorable redistricting map.
– Gene Taylor, Mississippi’s 4th
His consistent record as one of the most conservative House Democrats has enabled Taylor to grow deep roots in this southern Mississippi district since winning a 1989 special election, even though the 4th otherwise has a strong Republican edge.

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