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Andrew Kohut, president of Pew Research, takes a look at what the polls are telling us about the different dynamics in the Republican and Democratic contests in the early voting states where, he says, the likely outcome of these contests is more in doubt than in any election cycle in recent history. “For the Democratic candidates,” Kohut observes, “the decisive factors are personal and tactical. For Republican contestants, however, the ultimate outcome may be decided more by the relative strength of long quiescent but newly combative ideological elements within the GOP, a struggle that is likely to take longer to play out.”