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Iowa And N.H. Outcomes Can Shift National Preferences

Read the full Gallup analysis

Gallup historical data on national Republicans’ and Democrats’ presidential nomination preferences shows that the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have the potential to shift national preferences, sometimes dramatically. This has especially been the case when the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary produced an unexpected result, such as with Jimmy Carter’s and John Kerry’s surprise wins in 1976 and 2004, respectively.

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