Some Post-Mortems On The N.H. Polls

Posted January 9, 2008 at 1:03pm

ABC News polling director Gary Langer writes, “It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong.” But he notes that the problems were with the Democratic race, not the Republican one (although nearly all of the polls reported here in Poll Tracker suggested that the GOP contest was closer than it turned out to be). Langer says: “In the end there may be no smoking gun. Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known.”

John Zogby said “It looks like we all missed the mark on the Democratic side.” He cited as one factor the finding of the exit polls that 18 percent of voters made up theirs minds on primary day which he called “an unprecedented number.” He also noted that while his firm’s polling showed Clinton doing well on Sunday night and all day Monday, the survey was based on a three day rolling average that reflected the big numbers for Barack Obama on Friday and Saturday.