Florida, National Polls Differ for GOP

Posted January 27, 2008 at 8:36pm

With the the primary just a day and a half away, today’s Rasmussen poll shows Romney edging ahead in Florida, with 33 percent of likely Republican voters, John McCain with 27 percent, Rudy Giuliani a “distant” third with 18 percent and Mike Huckabee with 12 percent. Rasmussen points out that the poll was done before Florida Governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain Saturday.

Nationally, a Gallup poll released today finds McCain faring better, with 31 percent support from Republican voters. But Gallup also says Romney has edged ahead of Huckabee, with 21 percent compared to Huckabee’s 18 percent. Gallup adds: “Romney appears to have gained the most from Fred Thompson’s campaign exit — he is up five percentage points since Jan. 20.”

The same poll shows Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of Barack Obama nationally with 45 percent compared to Obama’s 32 percent and Edwards’ 13 percent. The Gallup poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent and was conducted Jan. 24-26, before the South Carolina primary results were announced.

Speaking of South Carolina, even before Saturday evening was over, Public Policy Polling was bragging that it came closest of all the pollsters in estimating the strength of Barack Obama in South Carolina. It cited a Jan. 25 poll showing Obama with 44 percent, 20 points ahead of Hillary Clinton. He finished with 55 percent of the vote, a number which no pollsters came close to predicting, as other polls this week had Obama’s lead shrinking to 13-16 points.

SurveyUSA has a “report card” chart, comparing various pollsters and adds: “To put the size of Barack Obama’s South Carolina win into perspective: (The) Average Pollster Error in South Carolina’s Democratic Primary was 16.6 points. (The) Average Pollster Error in New Hampshire Democratic Primary was 9.6 points.”