If the Polls Are Right, Clinton Will Win (But By Enough?)

Posted April 22, 2008 at 11:03am

InsiderAdvantage’s final Pennsylvania poll released this morning falls within the range of the seven polls that came out yesterday, putting Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll was conducted last night and has a 3.6 percent margin of error. Monday’s polls had two putting Clinton ahead by 10, two by 7, one by 6, one by 5 and one by a statistically insignificant 3. The biggest outlier so far of all the polls since the weekend is American Research Group whose April 17-19 survey had Clinton ahead by 13.

Also today:

– A final Zogby poll conducted April 20-21 has Clinton up by 51 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent “not sure.” The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

American Research Group now posts an even bigger lead for Clinton than it did in its previous poll. Its April 20-21 survey has her ahead 56 percent to 40 percent, with a 4 point margin of error. It had given her a 13 point lead on Monday.

The question is whether a Clinton victory will be by enough of a margin to revive her campaign, especially after a CQ Politics district-by-district analysis last week showed she is not likely to walk away from Pennsylvania with many more delegates than Obama.

Check out these previews of tonight’s vote:

– What to Look for in Pennsylvania Primary *Los Angeles Times*
– Eight Questions About the Pennsylvania Primary *Washington Post*