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By Niels Lesniewski, Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari

House Republicans got a sudden influx of good news beginning Wednesday after weeks of complications. 

On the House floor, they found a path toward unlocking immigration enforcement funding, ended the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security and passed a reauthorization of contentious surveillance programs, as well as a new farm bill. Meanwhile, in Florida, a newly redrawn congressional map could help them flip up to four seats. 

But perhaps the most consequential news for the chamber was the Supreme Court ruling invalidating Louisiana’s congressional map and significantly weakening the Voting Rights Act, which could lead to further House pickups for Republicans in Southern states.

There’s already movement on that in Louisiana, whose map the Supreme Court ruled to be an “unconstitutional racial gerrymander” because it was drawn to include two Black-majority districts. Republican Gov. Jeff Landry signed an executive order Thursday to delay House primaries that were scheduled for May 16 in light of the ruling. (Primaries for other offices won’t be affected.)

As Michael Macagnone reported for Roll Call, at least three congressional Republicans running for governor in Southern states have since called for new maps.

They include South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman, who called the ruling “a turning point for our state.” 

The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9. Any redistricting effort there would likely target the seat of longtime Democratic Rep. James E. Clyburn.

Clyburn’s name quickly appeared on a fundraising message from the DCCC. 

“In a disgraceful ruling, the Supreme Court just GUTTED the Voting Rights Act of 1965, opening the door for bigots to bring back racial gerrymandering,” said Clyburn, the former No. 3 House Democrat. “I won’t sugarcoat it: This action could wipe out generations of progress.”

Another GOP gubernatorial hopeful, Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, called for her state to pass a new map that eliminates its lone Democrat-held seat, currently held by Rep. Steve Cohen. Tennessee’s primary is Aug. 6. 

“Redrawing our lines will cement @realDonaldTrump’s agenda, which is why I’m calling for the state legislature to reconvene for a special session,” Blackburn posted on X.

Cohen, a rare white House Democrat representing a majority Black district, wrote on X after the ruling: “The African-American vote in the ninth District becomes irrelevant.”

Starting gate

#MESEN: Maine Gov. Janet Mills ended her Senate campaign on Thursday, saying in a statement that she lacked the funds to continue in the Democratic primary. Her decision sets up a high-stakes contest between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Graham Platner, a political newcomer who has earned strong support from progressives. 

Battle on the Plains: The May 12 Democratic primary for Nebraska’s open 2nd District is among the first this year to test the strength of the party’s left flank in blue and purple districts across the nation. The contest for the Omaha-centered seat is shaping up as an increasingly divisive campaign between labor-backed progressive John Cavanaugh and political action committee co-founder Denise Powell.

New map: Florida’s Republican-controlled Legislature has approved a new congressional map that could give the GOP a chance to flip up to four House seats this fall, clearing the way for Gov. Ron DeSantis, who unveiled the map Monday, to sign the bill. Democrats are expected to challenge the map in court and have said they will still target Republicans in the state. 

Webster out: Meanwhile, Florida Rep. Daniel Webster became the latest House Republican to decide against reelection, leaving behind a Central Florida seat after eight terms. 

Eight on the list: The NRCC has added eight battleground Republican candidates to its MAGA Majority program, which provides challengers in Democratic-held or open districts with early support and visibility. The GOP faces historic headwinds and a challenging political environment, but NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson of North Carolina expressed confidence that the party can overcome those challenges.

Virginia mapmaking: The Virginia Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case challenging the legislative process that set up last week’s redistricting referendum, with much of the hearing focused on the legislature’s use of a previously recessed special session to begin the process after early voting for the commonwealth’s off-year elections had already begun, Macagnone reports.

ICYMI

Warning for the GOP: Americans for Prosperity Action, a GOP super PAC, warned in a memo Thursday that “the Republican Senate majority is at risk.” The group’s leaders wrote that Republicans should keep a “relentless focus on driving costs down and keeping them low” and that the next several months are a crucial window for Republicans to persuade voters to support them.

Woof: The Blue Dog PAC, which backs moderate Democrats who support a “common sense” approach to governing, has endorsed Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho in California’s 6th District and firefighter union leader Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania’s 7th District. 

Campaign launches: Ryan Elijah, a former Orlando news anchor, has launched a primary challenge to embattled GOP Rep. Cory Mills in Florida’s 7th District. And former Florida Rep. and Gov. Charlie Crist announced another campaign, this time for mayor of St. Petersburg. 

#ME02: The four Democrats seeking to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden in Maine’s 2nd District met for their first debate this week as the race heats up ahead of the June 9 primary. Off the stage, former House chief of staff Jordan Wood announced a six-figure ad buy, while state Sen. Joe Baldacci also released his first ads of the campaign, which ran statewide during Tuesday’s debate. 

Team Maryland: Top Maryland officials, including Gov. Wes Moore and Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Angela Alsobrooks, cut an ad supporting Democratic Rep. April McClain Delaney, who is facing a primary challenge from her predecessor, former Rep. David Trone. It comes after McClain Delaney’s campaign sent a cease-and-desist letter to Trone last week, demanding that he stop implying he is a current member of Congress. 

Time for a change?: Texas Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee is proposing legislation that sets a national 180-day deadline for states to complete special elections to fill vacant House seats. “Governors of both parties have faced accusations of deliberately stretching out vacancies in districts held by the opposing party, denying hundreds of thousands of constituents a vote on legislation that shapes their daily lives,’’ Menefee said in a statement. His own district, Texas’ 18th, was vacant for 334 days after the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner before Menefee’s swearing-in.

Off the trail: South Carolina Republican Mark Sanford, a former governor and congressman — and briefly a long-shot presidential contender — is giving up his bid to reclaim his old House seat. The Associated Press reports that Sanford is quitting the race for the open Charleston-area seat he held for five full terms. Sanford made national headlines as governor in 2009 after revelations that he fled to Argentina to meet a woman with whom he had been having an affair. 

#KYSEN: Trump is leaning towards endorsing Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr for Senate, The Wall Street Journal reports. Barr is locked in a three-way Republican primary for the open seat with former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron and businessman Nate Morris, who has support from several Trump allies.

Nathan’s notes

When House Majority PAC, the go-to Democratic outside group focused on House races, announced $272 million in initial TV and digital ad buys for this fall, spread across 68 media markets, some Republicans cried foul. They pointed out that HMP reported just $64 million in cash on hand at the end of March. 

But this isn’t a new situation for Democrats, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes, and the dynamic of ad reservations not matching up with current cash balances is not unique to HMP.

What we’re reading

Banning super PACs: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is urging Democratic Party leaders to require candidates to reject support from super PACs in primaries, The New York Times reports. Five other Democratic senators joined Sanders’ letter, underscoring tensions in the party about the role of dark money in campaigns.

The other A word: Affordability is top of mind for voters this year, but The 19th reports that abortion remains a key concern for Democrats. “There’s going to be a focus on this by the Democratic campaigns, even if it’s not as prominent in the discourse as affordability,” J.J. Abbott, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist, told the outlet.

From purple to blue: In 2024, Oregon’s 5th District was a key congressional battleground, with both parties dumping millions of dollars in the fight for the seat. This year is different: Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum faces several underfunded Republican opponents and is heavily favored to win reelection. “I haven’t talked to any Republican in Washington who believes that this is going to be a competitive race,” Erin Covey, an editor with the Cook Political Report, told OPB.

#MISEN: CNN’s KFILE reports that Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, one of three leading Democrats seeking the party’s nomination in a key Senate race, deleted thousands of old tweets, including posts lamenting her move from California and saying she continued to vote there after settling in Michigan.

The count: 228

That will be the number of House districts carried by Trump in 2024 once Florida’s new map is signed into law, compared with 207 that backed Kamala Harris.

That would be a drop from the start of this Congress, when there were 230 Trump-won House seats and 205 carried by Harris. 

“We are entitled to five more seats [in Texas],” the president had argued in August, kicking off a nationwide scramble to redraw congressional lines that has reshaped this year’s fight for the House. 

Democrat-run California and Virginia moved to counter new Republican pickup opportunities with redrawn voter-approved maps of their own.

Not all districts were redrawn equally, however. Assuming the new maps all hold, Republicans will find themselves on more secure footing overall in the 2026 campaign.

The number of districts Trump won by less than 10 points – and likely to be competitive in what’s expected to be a tough midterm for the GOP – was cut from 39 seats to 28 seats through mid-decade redistricting.

The equivalent total for Harris-won seats is 51, just one fewer than before the remapping effort began.

– By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Key race: #GA13

Candidates: Longtime Democratic Rep. David Scott died last week at 80, though his name will remain on the May 12 primary ballot. A crowd of Democrats had already been challenging him for the safe blue seat, including Emory University professor and state Rep. Jasmine Clark, educator Everton Blair and state Sen. Emanuel Jones. Rounding out the field are dentist Joe N. Lester, faith leader Jeff Fauntleroy Sr. and dentist Heavenly Kimes, who stars in the reality show “Married to Medicine.” 

Separate from the primary, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has 10 days from Scott’s death to call a special election to fill the rest of his term, which concludes in early January. On Thursday, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Marcye Scott, the late congressman’s daughter, plans to run in the special election.

Why it matters: Prior to Scott’s death, the race was dominated by calls for generational change and a more vigorous approach to fighting the Trump agenda. But over the past week, the candidates have had to recalibrate their messages away from Scott while honoring his service and praising his legacy. At a forum this week, Blair urged Clark to disavow a pro-crypto super PAC running ads and mailers boosting her campaign. Clark said she has no control over outside groups.

Cash dash: Clark is the fundraising leader, raising $1.1 million this cycle through March 31. Blair brought in $644,000 over the same span, while Kimes raised $537,000 and Jones $386,000, with the bulk of the latter two hauls coming in the form of candidate loans. 

Backers: Clark has the backing of 314 Action, a PAC that supports candidates with backgrounds in science; Mary Trump, the president’s niece; and retired Army Col. Alexander Vindman, who is running for Senate in Florida. Blair has been endorsed by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick. Jones is supported by former Atlanta Mayor and civil rights leader Andrew Young. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and civil rights attorney Ben Crump are backing Kimes.

What they’re saying: Clark, a microbiologist who flipped a Republican-held state House district in 2018, has attacked Trump’s health care cuts and the impact that staff reductions at the National Institutes of Health will have on scientific research. Blair, who, if elected, would be the first out gay Black congressman from the South, has emphasized an economic agenda that proposes higher taxes on the wealthy and an increase in the federal minimum wage. Jones, who founded an automotive business and has served in the legislature for nearly two decades, has focused on his experience in both politics and business. Fauntleroy and Kimes have highlighted their statuses as political outsiders. Lester has emphasized his deep roots in the region, having grown up in Blue Springs and attending a segregated primary school during the Jim Crow era. 

Terrain: The metro Atlanta district sweeps across the city’s southern and eastern suburbs. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Democratic; Scott won his 2024 contest with more than 70 percent of the vote.

Wild card: The district was created following the 2000 census, and Scott is the only person who has ever represented it.

Coming up

Primary season picks back up Tuesday, with Ohio and Indiana deciding their fall nominees. 

Photo finish

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