Two Major New Polls, Two Different Results

Posted April 30, 2008 at 7:50pm

Two new national polls came out late today, one from New York Times/CBS News and the other from NBC News/Wall Street Journal. Times/CBS News has Obama leading by a statistically significant amount, while the NBC News/Journal poll has Obama ahead but within the margin of error.

Barack Obama has widened his lead over Hillary Clinton to 8 points in a new New York Times/CBS News poll conducted April 25-29, an increase over the margins he held in April and March. Obama is ahead 46 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided and a 5 point margin of error. That undecided number is up 6 points since early April. The other point to take into account is that this lead is among Democrats who have already participated in a primary this year or plan to. When all registered Democrats are considered, the two are essentially even.

In the NBC/Journal poll, conducted April 25-28, Obama leads by 46 percent to 43 percent among Democrats (this is regardless of whether they voted or not in the primaries) with 7 percent undecided and the margin of error at 3.1 percent. In its general election match-up, the poll has McCain running nearly even with either Democrat which the Journal says “clouds the outcome of a race that was expected to be tough for Republicans.”