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How Iraq Plays in Latest State-by-State General Election Match-Ups

Here’s our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups. There’s some interesting trends on voter sentiments about Iraq in Florida and Colorado. Most voters in both states favor the goal of getting American troops home from Iraq by the end of the next President’s first term compared to winning the war. Most believe McCain is more likely to win the war, while Obama is more likely to bring the troops home in that timeframe. Still, if that reflects a problem for McCain given his hawkish Iraq stand, he does pretty well in these newest Rasmussen polls:

**Florida:** John McCain leads Barack Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring “other” than 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. Hillary Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 41 percent. Clinton is viewed positively by 53 percent of voters, McCain by 50 percent and Obama by 48 percent. Half of voters cite the economy as the top issue while 18 percent name Iraq. Ironically, although McCain leads Obama, it is despite the fact that 58 percent of voters would rather see the next President bring American troops home from Iraq in a first term compared to 35 percent who say it is more important to win the war. Only 24 percent of voters believe is very or somewhat likely to be the President that wins the war, but 59 percent say he would bring the troops home in his first term. Forty-three percent believe that the war would be won under McCain, while 38 percent believe the troops would come home before his first term was over. In a Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 23-29, McCain edged Obama 44 percent to 43 percent with a 2.6 percent margin of error. McCain bested Obama among white working class voters by 51 percent to 34 percent.

**Colorado:**Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen’s last poll conducted mid-April. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, McCain by 51 percent and Clinton by 44 percent. Forty-one percent of voters name the economy as the top issue with Iraq second at 21 percent. Fifty-four percent of voters favor the goal of getting the troops home from Iraq before the end of the next President’s term, compared to 39 percent who want to win it. Forty-four percent of voters say that if McCain is president he is very or somewhat likely to win the war in Iraq compared to 20 percent who say that of Obama. Thirty-five percent believe that it is very or somewhat likely that McCain as President would have American troops out of Iraq by the end of his first term, but 60 percent believe Obama would bring them home in that timeframe.

**California:** Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. SurveyUSA’s mid-April poll had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 14 point lead among men, McCain runs evenly with him among women, bringing to mind a Gallup analysis that points to Obama’s relative weakness among women going into the general election campaign, at least compared to Clinton. Obama bests McCain in every age group except those over 65. McCain has a slight edge among independents. SurveyUSA did not poll on Clinton.

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