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Texas: New GOP Survey Has Cornyn With Big Lead

Sen. John Cornyn (R) led his challenger, state Rep. Rick Noriega (D), by 16 points in a poll of registered voters conducted late last month by a GOP pollster unaffiliated with the incumbent’s campaign.

The survey, conducted May 20-25 by Austin-based Mike Baselice of Baselice & Associates Inc., showed Cornyn ahead of Noriega 49 percent to 33 percent with 16 percent undecided. The poll gauged the opinions of 1,005 registered voters, and had an error margin of 3.1 points.

This survey stands in stark contrast to some recent auto-dial polls conducted by independent firms (one for a client that supports the Democrats) of likely voters that showed the race in a virtual dead heat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee questioned the Baselice survey’s results.

“With two independent polls showing John Cornyn in a dead heat to defend his seat, this partisan poll makes about as much sense as an Aggie singing the ‘Eyes of Texas,’ and it’s even less likely to come true,” said DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller, referring to the University of Texas’ alma mater and rivalry between UT and Texas A&M University, whose mascot is known as an Aggie.

According to the memo prepared by Baselice & Associates, 48 percent of the survey’s respondents indicated that they usually vote for Republican candidates, with 40 percent indicating that they usually vote for Democrats.

Baselice also polled registered voters on the Senate race in late April, finding at that time that Cornyn led Noriega 49 percent to 34 percent.

Texas is still considered solid Republican territory, and Cornyn remains favored to win his re-election bid at this point.

— David M. Drucker

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