A Demographic Roadmap to the Obama-McCain Contest

Posted June 5, 2008 at 10:51am

Now that we’re ready to look in earnest ahead at the Barack Obama-John McCain contest, Gallup has delved into its data for May and come up with the following demographic roadmap. The margin of error for all these figures is 1 percent.

Before getting to the different voting blocs, it’s worth a look at Gallup’s rundown of how the Red vs. Blue states are sorting out. In states that President Bush won by more than 6 points, he leads Obama 52 percent to 39 percent. In states John Kerry won by similar margins, Obama leads 53 percent to 39 percent. In states where the margin was 5 points or less, Obama has a slim 47 percent to 44 percent edge.