Now that it’s clearly John McCain versus Barack Obama, the polls are showing that coming out of the gate, the two are running neck-and-neck. (A good clich’ to use on Belmont Stakes day, no? Although the analogy breaks down when you consider that Da’ Tara was a 38-to-1 shot).)
A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 4-5 shows Obama ahead of McCain by 49 percent to 46 percent, which is a statistical tie given the 3 point margin of error. Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate show up at 6 percent and 2 percent respectively, although CNN’s pollsters don’t believe either will garner enough support to be a spoiler.
CNN says putting Clinton on the ticket adds about 3 percentage points for Obama in a race against McCain. It drew that conclusion by matching up a hypothetical Obama-Clinton ticket against McCain-Romney and had the Democrats ahead 52 percent to 46 percent. The poll also noted that if Clinton is not on the ticket, 60 percent of her supporters say they would vote for Obama, 17 percent would defect to McCain and 22 percent would stay home.