Handicapping the outcome of an election, whether for President or the battle for Congress, can be tricky ground when its based on voters’ generic preferences for one party over another, as opposed to a specific candidate over another. But to the extent it has some use as a predictor, a USA Today/Gallup poll says – as do many other assessments – that registered voters would favor a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by 51 percent to 40 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin is similar for “likely voters” – 52 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent undecided. The poll was conducted June 15-19 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
CQ Politics has come to the same conclusion about the likely outcome of the House elections based on its constantly updated district-by-district assessment of House races which you can check out at “House Races to Watch” and our “Balance of Power Scorecard.”