New Hampshire: Two New Polls Show a Substantial Hodes Lead

Posted September 24, 2008 at 6:39pm

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) had a double-digit lead over radio host Jennifer Horn (R) in two new polls released this week.

In an Anzalone Liszt Research poll of 500 likely voters conducted Sept. 14-18 for Hodes, the Congressman had a 50-percent-to-32-percent lead. The poll had a 5-point error margin.

Hodes led Horn 38 percent to 26 percent in a Sept. 14-21 University of New Hampshire poll of 271 registered voters, which had a margin of error of 6 points. Undecided voters accounted for 33 percent of the vote.

A recent Republican poll showed Hodes with just a 4-point lead.

The UNH poll pointed out that Hodes’ candidacy appears to have been damaged by the four-way GOP primary that ended on Sept. 9. Hodes began this year with a sizable lead over Horn, 52 percent to 25 percent, with 22 percent undecided in April.

Nonetheless, the district is the more left-leaning of the Granite State’s two Congressional seats, and freshman Hodes is expected to win re-election.

UNH Poll Suggests Senate Race Is Tight

Sen. John Sununu’s (R) rematch with former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is tightening, according to a recent poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

In the poll sponsored by a local television station, Shaheen led Sununu 48 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The survey interviewed 523 likely voters Sept. 14-21 and had a margin of error of 4.3 points.

Poll results from April showed a larger winning margin for Shaheen, who led Sununu in a similar statewide survey 52 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided.

The tightening race is reminiscent of the 2002 matchup between Shaheen and Sununu, in which the race became increasingly close in the final weeks before the Republican squeaked out a 4-point win. This year, the rematch between Sununu and Shaheen is expected to be one of the most contentious in the country.

Poll Shows Rematch Remains Very Close

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) still trails former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R), according to recent polling data by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

One of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country, Shea-Porter trailed 45 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided. The Sept. 14-21 poll of 252 likely voters had a margin of error of 6.2 points.

Bradley recently emerged from a bitter GOP primary against former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, which could explain why his margin has decreased since the same poll gave him a 6-point lead in July.

Democrats are spending heavily to retain the seat they took away from Bradley in a surprise win in 2006, recently spending $572,100 in independent expenditures in the district, which voted for President Bush with 51 percent in 2004.