NRCC Polls Show Kosmas, Kratovil and Nye in Serious Peril

Posted September 28, 2010 at 4:05pm

Democratic incumbents in battleground districts in Florida, Maryland and Virginia are in serious trouble with just over a month to go before Election Day, according to polling done for the National Republican Congressional Committee’s independent expenditure arm.

In Florida’s 24th district, Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) trailed state Rep. Sandy Adams by 10 points, according to an NRCC poll that was in the field Sept. 22 and 23. Adams led 49 percent to 39 percent in the survey of 400 likely voters. The poll was conducted by the GOP firm Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates and had a 4.9-point margin of error.

The NRCC’s IE also polled the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and President Barack Obama, because tying Democratic incumbents to party leaders is a central plank in the GOP’s advertising message. Pelosi had a 29 percent favorable to 59 percent unfavorable rating in the 24th district. Obama was viewed favorably by 37 percent and unfavorably by 56 percent of respondents.

In the Eastern Shore-based 1st district in Maryland, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) trailed state Sen. Andy Harris (R) 39 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent going to third-party candidates. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted by the Republican firm OnMessage Inc. and was in the field Sept. 20 and 21. It had a 4.9-point margin of error.

Pelosi had a 28 percent to 61 percent favorable/unfavorable rating in the 1st district, while Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 42 percent to 55 percent.

In Virginia’s 2nd district, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) trailed car dealer Scott Rigell (R) by 5 points. The Congressman took 40 percent to Rigell’s 45 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted by the GOP firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates from Sept. 23 to Sunday and had a 4.9-point margin of error.

Pelosi’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 23 percent to 60 percent, and Obama had a 43 percent favorable to 51 percent unfavorable rating.

A source with knowledge of the NRCC’s IE operation said Tuesday that the committee has now polled in more than 60 districts, including about 50 held by Democratic incumbents. The source said that the average re-elect number among those 50 targeted Democrats is just 37 percent. Kosmas’ re-elect rating was 32 percent, Kratovil was at 36 percent and Nye was at 38 percent.

Republicans are looking to refine their list of targets so that they make the most strategic use of their resources given they have more opportunities than they can likely fund. The GOP needs a net gain of 39 House seats to have a majority in the next Congress.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been releasing polling results from its independent expenditure operation on a weekly basis since early September.

The latest DCCC IE survey focused on West Virginia’s 3rd district, where Rep. Nick Rahall (D) is facing former state Supreme Court of Appeals Justice Spike Maynard (R). The poll, which was conducted by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, showed the Congressman ahead 55 percent to 37 percent. The survey of 411 likely voters was conducted Sept. 23 to Sunday and had a 4.8-point margin of error.