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GOP Poll: N.Y. Special to Replace Weiner Tied

Updated: 5:15 p.m.

A new Republican-commissioned poll showed the race to replace ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) in New York’s 9th district to be a dead heat.

A McLaughlin & Associates poll of 300 likely voters found 42 percent would vote for state Assemblyman David Weprin (D) while 42 percent said they would vote for retired businessman Bob Turner (R).

Sixteen percent of those polled said they were undecided with less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 13 special election. The poll was conducted for Turner’s campaign.

“With adequate resources, Bob Turner’s campaign will … defeat David Weprin on September 13th. This is a very similar dynamic to [Republican] Scott Brown’s Senate victory in Massachusetts,” GOP pollster John McLaughlin wrote in a memo.

The live telephone survey, conducted Wednesday, had a margin of error of 5.7 points.

A Siena College poll released in early August showed Weprin leading by 6 points.

Democrats have a decided registration advantage in the district, but Barack Obama carried it in 2008 with only 55 percent of the vote. And in the conservative Brooklyn portion of the 9th, 57 percent of voters cast their ballot for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Although Weprin remains favored to win the race — Roll Call rates it Likely Democratic — the dynamics of the district and the likelihood of a low-turnout election make an upset possible.

In an interview with Roll Call before the poll came out, Turner, 70, said a low-turnout election was to be expected.

“In this election, we think, on past performances and so on, that we’ll only have a 17 percent turnout,” he said. “Maybe as this takes off and heats up it could be higher, and I hope so.”

“I think the higher the turnout would suggest that the disaffected and the unhappy and the protests would be stronger, so we’ll see,” Turner said.

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