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Early Poll Shows Paul Gosar Behind in New District

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) has a fight on his hands for re-election in Arizona’s 4th district, according to an internal poll from rival Republican Sheriff Paul Babeu’s campaign.

The poll of 300 likely Republican voters, conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies showed that Babeu currently has the inside track to the nomination, leading with 31 percent of respondent support. Gosar came in second, polling at 23 percent. State Sen. Ron Gould had the support of 19 percent of those polled.

It should be noted that with the 12-point spread between first and third in the GOP race, there is a margin of error of about 6 points. About a quarter of those polled were undecided. One third of the 4th district includes Gosar’s current constituents.

Gosar recently announced he would not run in his current tossup seat, the 1st district, and instead would run in the Safe Republican 4th district. That race will likely be determined in the Republican primary.

The 4th district encompasses a large swath of the western part of the state. It is essentially a new seat that Arizona picked up in reapportionment.

The poll was a telephone survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in the 4th district. It took place Jan. 18-19. The timing of the poll comes early in the race, as the primary is Aug. 28.

Neither campaign responded to requests for comment on the poll.

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