Ballot returns over the past week indicate that Democratic Rep. Ron Barber is on the verge of defeating Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s 2nd District.

Democrats have been increasingly bullish on the numbers they are seeing for Barber, not just because his margin has increased to 923 votes, but because of the geography of the returns. The outstanding ballots to be counted are in Pima County, home to Tucson, which is Barber’s stronghold.

Even Republicans are beginning to that concede the outlook is grim. There is a sense in Arizona circles that The Associated Press is especially cautious to call this race, which explains why it is one of three races still outstanding after Election Day. The counting is expected to continue into next week.

Beyond the Arizona race there are two more House races that haven’t been called: North Carolina’s 7th District and Florida’s 18th District. In Florida, a judge ruled Friday against a recount request from Republican Rep. Allen B. West, who trails. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre leads his Republican opponent and Democrats are increasingly confident he will ultimately be declared the winner when the recanvassing process concludes.

Two other races in California were decided in the past 24 hours, with GOP Reps. Dan Lungren and Brian P. Bilbray both being defeated.