It’s no secret that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces a troublesome re-election bid. The Republican incumbent is taking heat from the left and the right on a daily (or even hourly) basis.

We continue to believe that McConnell is the favorite in both the primary and general elections, but there is no denying that his polling numbers are mediocre at best.

In the end, the failure of outside groups to coalesce behind primary challenger Matt Bevin could be crucial to McConnell’s primary victory. And the Republican lean of Kentucky in federal races could bail out the senator in the general election.

But the Republican Favored rating doesn’t seem to match his polling numbers nor the thousands of dollars of attacks McConnell has endured and will endure in the future.

So, we are moving the Kentucky Senate race from Republican Favored to Lean Republican in the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings.