When the Republican wave hit in 2010, it lost virtually all of its strength before it got to the West Coast. Most Democrats in competitive races west of the Rocky Mountains held on.  

So Democrats are in a precarious electoral position this cycle, and it’s unclear whether some districts that look Democratic on paper could be a struggle to hold in November. Barack Obama carried California’s 26th District by 10 points in 2012 and by a whopping 16 points in 2008. But Republicans believe that state Assemblyman Jeff Gorell is a unique candidate who can run a competitive race against Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley.  

Brownley is still favored to win re-election at this point, but Gorell will make her work for it, at a minimum. We are changing the Rothenberg Political Report /Roll Call rating of the race from Current Safe for Democrats to Democrat Favored .  

Read more about Gorell in Stuart Rothenberg’s April 8 column, “Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching.”