Former Rep. Robert Dold, R-Ill., nearly survived Democrats’ redistricting efforts and a presidential election year, but he lost re-election in the 10th District in 2012. Dold is running again this year against the man who beat him, Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider.  

But like the race in California’s 52nd District , the Republican challenger in this Illinois contest is at least as well-known as the Democratic incumbent in the race. Much of the messaging will likely be recycled from last time, but the midterm dynamic could produce a friendlier electorate for Dold. Instead of getting a boost from Obama’s re-election effort, Schneider might be forced to contend with Gov. Pat Quinn’s struggling poll numbers outside of Chicago.  

The district leans Democratic by the numbers, but given the tight race last time and the general election sprint still ahead of us, it is too difficult to give a clear advantage to either Dold or Schneider. We’re changing our Rothenberg Political Report /Roll Call rating of Illinois’ 10th District from Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup .