While political reporters and party strategists argue over whether there is an electoral wave ahead, district-level data demonstrates a difficult landscape for Democratic candidates in House races.  

Democrats believe, as competitive races become more engaged and the party exercises some of its financial advantage to get its message out, that some contests will turn in their favor. That scenario is possible, but in many cases Democratic challenges aren’t developing as quickly as expected and some Democratic incumbents are struggling to gain their footing.  

We’re changing The Rothenberg Political Report /Roll Call ratings in a half dozen House races, all in favor of Republican candidates:

• California’s 21st District: The race between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Amanda Renteria moves from Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican.
• California’s 26th District: The race between Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley and Republican Jeff Gorell moves from Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic.
• Illinois’s 12th District: The race between Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart and Republican Mike Bost moves from Leans Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.
• Illinois’s 13th District: The race between Republican Rep. Rodney Davis and Democrat Ann Callis moves from Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican.
• Michigan’s 8th District: The race between Republican Mike Bishop and Democrat Eric Schertzing moves from Leans Republican to Republican Favored.
• Texas’s 23rd District: The race between Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego and Republican Will Hurd moves from Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic.

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