Regardless of whether you want to call it a wave, the fight for the House continues to creep into Democratic territory.  

Many of the Republican incumbents who were expected to have challenging races this cycle, including New York Rep. Chris Gibson, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, are starting the general-election sprint in stronger-than-expected position. Also, some Democratic incumbents, such as New York’s Dan Maffei, are in much closer races than anticipated. And now some hot spots, such as Hawaii’s 1st District, are popping up as potential Democratic headaches and look vulnerable.  

We changed the Rothenberg Political Report /Roll Call rating in nine House races this week , one in favor of the Democrats and eight in favor of Republicans.  

Once race moved in the Democrats’ direction:

• Nebraska’s 2nd District – From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Pure Tossup

Eight races moved in the Republicans’ direction:

• Colorado’s 6th District – From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican
• Hawaii’s 1st District – From Safe Democrat to Democrat Favored
• Illinois’ 12th District – From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup
• New York’s 11th District – From Lean Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic
• New York’s 19th District – From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican
• New York’s 21st District – From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican
• New York’s 23rd District – From Leans Republican to Republican Favored
• New York’s 24th District – From Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat


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