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Ratings Changes in 5 House Races

While voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are poised to kick off the presidential primaries, the national House landscape continues to take shape.  

You can read updated analysis on 102 districts across the country in the Jan. 25 issue of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, but here is a quick list of ratings changes for five seats, in coordination with Roll Call.
Arizona’s 2nd District. Republican Rep. Martha McSally is proving to be a tremendous fundraiser and a very tough incumbent for Democrats to dislodge from this competitive district. Moves from Lean Republican to Republican Favored.  

California’s 25th District. Republican Rep. Steve Knight is on the opposite end of the fundraising scale from McSally, but there isn’t a lot of evidence that Democratic Attorney Bryan Caforio or Agua Dulce Town Councilman Lou Vince have what it takes to win in such an expensive district. Moves from Lean Republican to Republican Favored.  

Nebraska’s 2nd District. Freshman Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford was expected to be vulnerable to any Republican who wasn’t Lee Terry, the embattled congressman he defeated in 2014. But the GOP field has been underwhelming and Ashford won’t be easy to defeat. Moves from Tossup to Tilt Democratic.  

New York’s 19th District. Democrats bet the farm on Ulster County Executive Mike Hein being their nominee in this competitive Republican open seat. But he decided not to run at the very last second and Democrats don’t have another great option. Moves from Tossup to Lean Republican.  

Virginia’s 4th District. A court-ordered congressional map redrew GOP Rep. J. Randy Forbes’ district to be heavily Democratic. Unless the United States Supreme Court intervenes, this seat is likely in the Democratic column. Moves from Safe Republican to Safe Democratic.


2016 House Overview: The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report

Roll Call Race Ratings Map: Ratings for Every House and Senate Race in 2016

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