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Post-Convention Polls Show Dead Heat Among Independents

One poll has Clinton's support surging

Two polls released since the end of the Democratic convention show Hillary Clinton getting a sizable bounce in public opinion. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
Two polls released since the end of the Democratic convention show Hillary Clinton getting a sizable bounce in public opinion. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Independents are still split between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the presidential race, and almost a quarter are undecided, according to two polls released after both party’s conventions.  

Slightly more self-identified independents would vote Republican for president, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey  with 41 percent picking the GOP and 39 percent going Democratic. Twenty percent of independents said they’re still undecided. The question did not specifically identify the two nominees.   

In a similar PPP survey from the end of June , independents favored a Democrat over a Republican by one percentage point and 29 percent were still undecided.   

In a CBS News poll  taken before the conventions, Trump, the GOP nominee, led his Democratic rival Clinton 33 percent to 22 percent among independents, with Libertarian Gary Johnson’s support at 21 percent. But that 11 percentage point lead has almost evaporated following the conventions.   

The most recent CBS News poll now has the real estate mogul leading Clinton by just 2 points with independents, 33 percent to 31 percent. Johnson’s support fell to 15 percent.  

Both polls give Clinton a five point lead over Trump among registered voters.  

In the CBS News poll, Clinton pulls down 41 percent, Trump 36 percent and Johnson broke double-digits with 10 percent.     

The PPP survey has Clinton ahead of Trump among registered voters, 46 percent to 41 percent, while 6 percent support Johnson and 2 percent align with Green Party candidate Jill Stein.   

With Trump’s historic unfavorable ratings among nonwhite voters, his path to victory this fall is through winning over white voters by record margins.      

In the PPP survey, 52 percent of white voters said they would support the Republican nominee, which is six percentage points lower than what Mitt Romney won in 2012 and 3 points lower than Sen. John McCain’s performance in 2008, according to exit polling data complied by The New York Times . Only 4 percent of white voters surveyed said they were undecided.    

The PPP survey was conducted July 29-30 among  1,276 registered voters and had margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.  

The CBS News poll was conducted July 29-31 among 1,131 registered voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.  

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