The good news for Donald Trump is that he is doing well in a state President Barack Obama won twice. The bad news is that winning Iowa isn’t enough to get him to the White House.

Trump has held a consistent lead over Hillary Clinton in the Hawkeye State (45-41 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics average), putting him in line to scoop up its six electoral votes. It’s a remarkable turnaround considering Iowa was one of the closest states in the country in 2000 and 2004, but Obama won it easily in 2008 (54-44 percent) and 2012 (52-46 percent).

[Roll Call’s 2016 Election Guide: President]

But Trump’s resilience in the Iowa polls this cycle is undeniable. We’re changing The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating from Tilts Democrat to Tossup. 

Winning Iowa would likely still leave Trump short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, even with wins in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida (none of which are guaranteed) because he looks likely to lose Colorado and Virginia. Trump’s easiest path to the White House includes winning Pennsylvania, where he’s down 5 points in the latest RCP average.