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Sinema Outpaces McSally in Poll With Help From Early Voters, Independents

Her lead falls within the poll’s margin of error

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., stops to chat with supporters. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., stops to chat with supporters. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leads Republican Rep. Martha McSally by six points in the heated Arizona Senate contest, an advantage driven by independents, women and Latinos, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of likely voters. 

In a head-to-head contest, Sinema outpaced McSally 50 percent to 44 percent. But Sinema’s advantage slimmed to three points when the ballot includes Green Party candidate Angela Green. 

Sinema took 51 percent of early voters to McSally’s 47 percent. Forty-four percent of respondents said they had already submitted their ballots. Early voting started in Arizona on Oct. 10th.

Among likely voters, some interesting trends emerged, NBC News reported

Arizona will elect the first woman senator in its 112-year history next month: 54 percent of women in the poll wanted that landmark election to be Sinema’s, while 41 percent of woman favored McSally.

Independents also preferred Sinema to McSally, with a 58 percent to 32 percent split.

Sinema’s most striking lead is among Latino voters, who favored the Democrat at a 66 percent to 22 percent margin. 

McSally held an advantage over Sinema among white voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, and narrowly among men, 48 percent to 47 percent.

The poll determined that 10 percent of respondents are persuadable voters, in other words, voters who are undecided before being asked if they lean toward a candidate.

Pollsters called a sample of 910 adults, including 506 likely voters, from October 23 through October 27. The error margin for the poll was 4.1 percent, while the error margin for likely voters was 5.4 percentage points. 

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race a Toss-up.

Watch: Fiery Arizona Debate in 4 Minutes

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