Latest inflation data shows Americans are still not buying Bidenomics
President’s economic message is not selling in outside-the-Beltway America
Last Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August inflation numbers showing that, year-over-year, inflation increased by 3.7 percent, up from 3.2 percent in July. It was the second consecutive month of rising prices and growing voter dissatisfaction.
It wasn’t a great day for Bidenomics despite Democrats’ best efforts to spin what remains a rocky economy into a tale of progress and accomplishment. The next day at a community college in Maryland, Biden, as he often does, took credit for deficit and debt reduction, lower inflation and jobs, which he called “Bidenomics in action.”
But most of his remarks were aimed at Republicans as he pivoted to an attack against what he called “MAGA-nomics,” accusing the GOP of everything from wanting to gut Social Security and Medicare to kicking kids out of Head Start — all to fund more tax cuts for the wealthy.
What the president didn’t talk about were the harsh realities of 31 months of Bidenomics. He didn’t mention the increases in inflation or the fact that the country was only days away from reaching a record $33 trillion in debt. That dubious milestone happened Monday.
Biden, apparently, doesn’t realize that his economic program has not only failed to fix the economy, it has actually made things worse for average Americans. When inflation outpaces wage growth, people instinctively know it isn’t working for them or their families.
The CPI that is usually reported reflects the impact of Bidenomics’ year-over-year rate, while the Presidential Inflation Rate measures the rate of inflation (based on CPI data) by contrasting the CPI from the presidential inauguration month with the current month. This paints a more comprehensive picture of the scale of inflation over a presidency.
Since President Biden took office, prices have increased cumulatively by 17.4 percent, while hourly wages have increased only 13 percent. In looking at the past seven presidents, only Jimmy Carter had a bigger inflation rate, 26.2 percent, at a similar point in his presidency. For the past four presidents, their Presidential Inflation Rate was in single digits, and, specifically, Biden’s PIR is triple that of where Donald Trump (5.6 percent) and George W. Bush (5.4 percent) were at this point in their first terms.
Despite Democrats’ relentless efforts to claim otherwise, Biden’s economic track record is lacking at best. Yes, inflation has come down from the near historic highs people lived through in 2022, but prices continue to rise significantly, just at a slower rate.
People know we’re a long way from the turnaround the White House claims when they see gas prices on the rise once again, when they can’t afford a steak in the grocery store or to go out to dinner, or when they can’t buy a house because interest rates have put the “American dream” out of reach.
Biden’s response, so far, has been to double down on Bidenomics and carry on. Voters have their own view.
In a recent Winning The Issues survey (Sept. 13-14), 50 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Bidenomics, with only a 26 percent favorable score. That’s a nearly 2-to-1 negative image for what is the president’s reelection centerpiece.
Biden’s job approval on his handling of the economy was nearly as bad, with people giving him a 36 percent approval rating to a 54 percent disapproval rating.
When it comes to the direction of the country, the right track/wrong track continues to be underwater, as it has been for months. Twenty-seven percent of voters said the country was headed in the right direction, while 60 percent said we were on the wrong track; 60 percent also said inflation was getting worse, not better, with only 16 percent believing it was getting better.
People also disagreed with the claim that Biden’s green policies have helped create almost a million new jobs, with 43 percent not believing that statement compared with 35 percent who did. The survey gave voters two descriptions of Bidenomics, asking which of the two choices reflected their thinking.
“Inflation, high prices, and wasteful government spending” or “Investments in green energy, lowering inflation, infrastructure, job creation, lowering the cost of medicine and fighting corporate greed.” The former beat out the latter by 52 percent to 38 percent.
Even worse for the Biden team, people said the economy was better in 2019 by a significant margin of 60 percent to 29 percent who said it was not back then.
The survey also found the GOP holds significant leads with voters regarding who they have more confidence in to handle key issues. Overall, voters prefer Republicans over Democrats on inflation by 15 percentage points (50 percent to 35 percent) and immigration (51 percent to 36 percent). They also favor the GOP on handling the economy by 14 points (51 percent to 37 percent), taxes by 7 percent (47 percent to 40 percent) and jobs by 6 percent (47 percent to 41 percent.)
The survey also asked voters to rank the importance of 18 issues or news stories on a 1-to-5 scale, and there were some interesting results. Topping the list was a combined inflation, gas prices and grocery costs, followed by crime and safety, the 2024 presidential campaign, health care and prescription drugs and, in fifth place, the national deficit.
As for the least important issues/news stories to voters, gender identity and cultural issues came in last place. Efforts to impeach the president and his son Hunter Biden tied for the 17th and 16th slots. The Trump indictments came in at 15th. And, perhaps most notably, Biden’s economic agenda, Bidenomics, came in at 14th out of the 18 issues. Clearly, the Biden economic messaging is failing.
When voters were asked how often they heard about issues from Republicans and Democrats by ranking them on a similar scale, the survey showed that both parties need to focus their efforts and messaging on the number one issue: the economy.
Voters said the issues they heard Republicans talking about the most were: (1) the border; (2) Hunter Biden allegations; and (3) the 2024 presidential campaign. Democrats, voters said, talked most about: (1) Trump indictments; (2) climate change; and (3) guns.
When it came to hearing about the economy from Republicans, voters put the issue in fifth place, and it was in 13th place for Democrats.
Democratic messaging on the economy — and, in particular, Bidenomics — is simply not selling in outside-the-Beltway America. While Republicans have a significant advantage on the economy at the moment, the party needs to put more emphasis on communicating its plans to help get the country out of its economic doldrums or risk seeing them defined by Biden.
David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations, and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.