For months, I’ve argued that the Democrats need to make the 2024 presidential race a referendum on former President Donald Trump, with a focus on his character, personality and integrity.

But now, as Nov. 5 approaches, it looks as if the election will be a choice between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s not ideal for the Democrats, but it certainly gives Harris a chance to win.

For Republicans, Harris is too liberal, even though she has moved to the political center since becoming her party’s presidential nominee.

She carries President Joe Biden’s baggage, particularly on the economy and immigration, and she has failed to find an issue or two that she can use to convince skeptics that she is a pragmatist, not an ideologue.

As the sitting vice president, Harris is responsible for everything the Biden administration did, even though it was the president — not the veep — who made the final decisions.

For Democrats, the election is a referendum on Trump, whose language is almost always vulgar and crude. He has taken profanity to new levels, and his dystopian view of America is cynical and dark.

He seems unconcerned about preserving the Constitution, the social and political norms and institutions that have been the guardrails of democracy, and the rule of law.

But swing voters and some Democrats also see next week’s election as a choice between Trump and Harris.

In addition, Biden has said repeatedly during his term in office: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.” This sets up an inevitable comparison.

But one thing is clear: Democrats have not succeeded in establishing the clean referendum on a deeply unpopular Trump that they once hoped for.

Right direction/wrong track

Only about two-thirds of Americans now think that the country is headed in the right direction, according to a late September NBC survey.

At the same time, polling from Gallup finds that three out of four Americans are “dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time.”

Not surprisingly, these responses are widely interpreted as being bad for Democrats, since they hold the presidency.

But the only way for the “wrong direction” and “dissatisfaction” numbers to be as high as they are is if substantial numbers of Republicans, Democrats, and independents believe that the country is headed off in the wrong direction. 

Why would that happen?

Republican voters can be dissatisfied because of Biden’s agenda and performance. In fact, Trump has spent months, even years, telling them how terrible everything is and specifically how horrible the national media and the “deep state” are.

But Democratic voters and officials might be dissatisfied because they worry about Trump’s plans and electoral prospects, as well as his threat to our democracy and the Constitution.

And, Democrats are frightened about the Supreme Court, possible Republican control of Congress and the extreme agenda of the MAGA movement. That is reason enough for many Democrats to fear the country’s direction.

Republicans do benefit slightly from the “right-direction” numbers, but we pay more attention to the “wrong-track” responses than we should.

On veeps, newspaper endorsements and Hispanic voters

Whatever you think about the vice presidential nominees, it is very clear that they will not have a major impact on the election. Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio received more attention than they deserved, but that is the way the national media cover running mates.

You can like the two vice presidential nominees or dislike them, but they have all but disappeared in the final weeks of the campaign. Sure, they are loyal surrogates for the presidential nominees, but neither Harris nor Trump is going to win or lose because of their veep choice.

Newspaper endorsements became a hot topic this past week, but once again, they don’t matter in presidential races. For school board? Sure. City council? Probably. But we see presidential nominees almost every day on television, and we have come to know them.

Voters have easy access to information about the presidential contest, and they can make an informed choice, if they wish.

Finally, I continue to be amazed how pollsters and political talking heads continue to talk about Latino voters and Hispanics without making distinctions about where these voters come from.

As we all know, Cuban Americans in Florida vote very differently than Puerto Ricans in New York, and talking about Latinos as if they are a single voting bloc misses that point.

The bottom line

With the country almost equally divided, Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race. Depending on what happens on Nov. 5, we could be in for a very difficult few weeks (possibly months) of chaos and disruption.